Reggina 0-3 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reggina at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reggina vs Frosinone fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Reggina and Frosinone meet at Stadio Oreste Granillo in Serie B, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 8 December 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Reggina's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Reggina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Reggina have posted 6W 1D 3L at Stadio Oreste Granillo — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
Frosinone have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Frosinone have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Frosinone arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Reggina lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2022, ended 0–3 with Frosinone winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Reggina — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Frosinone — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggina 36% versus Frosinone 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggina 42% | Frosinone 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggina 1.71 xG and Frosinone 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggina attack 1.504 / defence 1.059 | Frosinone attack 1.013 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.200 / away 1.111. Reggina carry an above-average attack strength of 1.504 — their λ of 1.71 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 53 Reggina games / 53 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggina 49% | Draw 26% | Frosinone 26%. Fair-value odds: Reggina 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Frosinone 3.85. Reggina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Reggina as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Frosinone (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reggina if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Reggina 40% | Frosinone 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggina vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Oreste Granillo • Kick-off: Thursday 8 Dec 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggina 49% | Draw 26% | Frosinone 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Reggina 1.71 / Frosinone 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Reggina attack 1.504 / def 1.059 | Frosinone attack 1.013 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.200 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Reggina (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Reggina xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Frosinone xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggina vs Frosinone kick off?
Reggina vs Frosinone kicked off at 14:00 on Thursday 8 December 2022 at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What was the final score in Reggina vs Frosinone?
Reggina 0 - 3 Frosinone.
Where is Reggina vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What competition is Reggina vs Frosinone part of?
Reggina vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggina vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Reggina a 49% chance of winning, Frosinone a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Reggina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggina vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Reggina and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Reggina vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Frosinone?
Record (2 meetings): Reggina 0W | Draws 1 | Frosinone 1W.
What form are Reggina and Frosinone in?
Reggina (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Frosinone (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Reggina's attacking strength (1.50x league average) is weighed against Frosinone's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. Flip it around — Frosinone's attack (1.01x) against Reggina's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggina Win
49%
2.06
26%
3.87
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Reggina xG
Total xG
2.91
1.19
Frosinone xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
18%
5.55
Win to Nil
15%
6.78
5%
21.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.2 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggina vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Reggina and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Reggina and 1.19 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggina vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Reggina's recent record stands at 22W 11D 20L from 53 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Reggina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Frosinone, meanwhile, have gone 25W 15D 13L across 53 games — 1.70 PPG, with W-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Reggina against 1.70 for Frosinone. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Reggina have managed 14W 3D 9L from 26 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Frosinone's away record stands at 8W 8D 10L across 26 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.70 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Frosinone's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reggina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Reggina are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.51 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Frosinone in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggina
Blended
Frosinone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggina and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Reggina have gone 22W 11D 20L in their last 53 games (1.45 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 25W 15D 13L in their last 53 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggina at home or Frosinone away?
Reggina's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggina at home: 1.73 PPG; Frosinone away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Reggina or Frosinone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggina have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Frosinone in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Frosinone have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Frosinone won 3-0 on 23 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reggina have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Frosinone — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Reggina
1
Draws
3
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Frosinone?
From 4 meetings on record, Reggina have won 0, Frosinone have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Reggina and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2023, when Frosinone 3-1 Reggina.
Who has won more matches between Reggina and Frosinone?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggina 38%, Frosinone 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Reggina) and 46% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Reggina keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Reggina have failed to score in 27% of games; Frosinone in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggina home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggina play Frosinone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Reggina's recent matches and 54% of Frosinone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reggina vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Reggina's recent games and 46% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggina and Frosinone tend to score early?
Reggina have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Frosinone run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Reggina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Reggina 0-3 at Stadio Oreste Granillo, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggina 1.71 xG and Frosinone 1.19 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Reggina fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Frosinone outscored their 1.19 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggina attack 1.50 / defence 1.06 against Frosinone attack 1.01 / defence 0.95, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggina 49% | Draw 26% | Frosinone 26%, with Reggina to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Frosinone win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggina 42%, Frosinone 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggina's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Frosinone's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggina 1.45 PPG, Frosinone 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Reggina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Frosinone (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.