Reggina 0-2 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brescia at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reggina vs Brescia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Brescia make the trip to Stadio Oreste Granillo to face Reggina in Serie B, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 January 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Reggina's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Reggina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reggina at Stadio Oreste Granillo this season: 3W 2D 4L from 9 home games — 1.22 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Brescia (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Brescia have gone 7W 1D 1L from 9 away fixtures this term (2.44 PPG). They are averaging 1.89 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Brescia are 1.00 PPG clear of Reggina in recent Serie B fixtures (2.00 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Reggina — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Brescia — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggina 44% versus Brescia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Reggina 39% | Brescia 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggina 0.82 xG and Brescia 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggina attack 0.815 / defence 1.332 | Brescia attack 1.041 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 0.998 / away 1.259. Data: 18 Reggina games / 18 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggina 16% | Draw 25% | Brescia 59%. Fair-value odds: Reggina 6.25 | Draw 4.00 | Brescia 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Brescia (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brescia are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Reggina 56% | Brescia 44%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggina vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Oreste Granillo • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jan 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggina 16% | Draw 25% | Brescia 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 47% | xG Reggina 0.82 / Brescia 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Reggina attack 0.815 / def 1.332 | Brescia attack 1.041 / def 1.006 | league avg home 0.998 / away 1.259 • Poisson stance: Brescia (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Reggina xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Brescia xG
47%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggina vs Brescia kick off?
Reggina vs Brescia kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 15 January 2022 at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What was the final score in Reggina vs Brescia?
Reggina 0 - 2 Brescia.
Where is Reggina vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What competition is Reggina vs Brescia part of?
Reggina vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggina vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Reggina a 16% chance of winning, Brescia a 59% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggina vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Reggina and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Reggina vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Brescia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Reggina and Brescia in?
Reggina (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Brescia (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Reggina's attack rating (0.81) and Brescia's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 0.82 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Brescia's attack (1.04x) against Reggina's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.74.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.0%), 0-2 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
16%
6.10
25%
3.99
59%
1.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.7%
Away win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Reggina xG
Total xG
2.56
1.74
Brescia xG
6.10
16%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
1.71
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
17%
5.72
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
3%
34.88
26%
3.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 13.5 | 11.7 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.0 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggina vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Reggina and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Reggina and 1.74 for Brescia, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggina vs Brescia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Reggina's recent record stands at 6W 5D 7L from 18 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Reggina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brescia, meanwhile, have gone 10W 4D 4L across 18 games — 1.89 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Brescia by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Reggina heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Reggina have managed 3W 2D 4L from 9 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Brescia's away record stands at 7W 1D 1L across 9 trips, a 2.44 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.89 PPG overall record — Brescia travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brescia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Reggina are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 1.67 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggina
Blended
Brescia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggina and Brescia in coming into this match?
Reggina have gone 6W 5D 7L in their last 18 games (1.28 PPG), while Brescia have gone 10W 4D 4L in their last 18 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggina at home or Brescia away?
Brescia's away record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggina at home: 1.22 PPG; Brescia away: 2.44 PPG.
Have Reggina or Brescia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggina have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Brescia in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Brescia won 3-0 on 6 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reggina have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Brescia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Reggina
0
Draws
3
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Brescia?
From 4 meetings on record, Reggina have won 1, Brescia have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Reggina and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2023, when Reggina 1-2 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Reggina and Brescia?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggina 56%, Brescia 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Reggina) and 44% (Brescia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Brescia in 44%; Reggina have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggina home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggina play Brescia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Reggina's recent matches and 44% of Brescia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reggina vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Reggina's matches and 44% of Brescia's.
Do Reggina and Brescia tend to score early?
Reggina have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Brescia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brescia cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Reggina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia beat Reggina 0-2 at Stadio Oreste Granillo, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggina 0.82 xG and Brescia 1.74 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Reggina fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggina attack 0.81 / defence 1.33 against Brescia attack 1.04 / defence 1.01, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggina 16% | Draw 25% | Brescia 59%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggina 39%, Brescia 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggina's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Brescia's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Brescia arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Reggina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Brescia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.