Reggina 2-2 Benevento – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Reggina at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reggina vs Benevento encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Oreste Granillo plays host to Reggina versus Benevento in Serie B, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 27 November 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Reggina's overall Serie B record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Reggina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Reggina have posted 7W 0D 3L at Stadio Oreste Granillo — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Oreste Granillo. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Benevento (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Benevento have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Reggina's favour (1.90 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Reggina lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2022, ended 0–3 with Benevento winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Reggina half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Benevento half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggina 35% versus Benevento 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggina 41% | Benevento 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggina 1.63 xG and Benevento 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggina attack 1.441 / defence 0.958 | Benevento attack 0.988 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.104. Reggina carry an above-average attack strength of 1.441 — their λ of 1.63 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 51 Reggina games / 51 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggina 50% | Draw 28% | Benevento 23%. Fair-value odds: Reggina 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Benevento 4.35. Reggina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Reggina as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reggina if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. This conflicts with form data: Reggina 30% | Benevento 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggina vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Oreste Granillo • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Nov 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggina 50% | Draw 28% | Benevento 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Reggina 1.63 / Benevento 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Reggina attack 1.441 / def 0.958 | Benevento attack 0.988 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Reggina (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Reggina xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Benevento xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggina vs Benevento kick off?
Reggina vs Benevento kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 27 November 2022 at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What was the final score in Reggina vs Benevento?
Reggina 2 - 2 Benevento.
Where is Reggina vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What competition is Reggina vs Benevento part of?
Reggina vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggina vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Reggina a 50% chance of winning, Benevento a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Reggina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggina vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Reggina and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Reggina vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Benevento?
Record (2 meetings): Reggina 0W | Draws 0 | Benevento 2W.
What form are Reggina and Benevento in?
Reggina (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Benevento (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Reggina's attack rating (1.44) and Benevento's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Benevento's attack (0.99x) against Reggina's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggina Win
50%
2.02
28%
3.64
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Reggina xG
Total xG
2.67
1.04
Benevento xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
17%
5.74
4%
22.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.7 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggina vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Reggina and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Reggina and 1.04 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggina vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 51 outings, Reggina have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 21W 10D 20L record — L-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Reggina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benevento's form line: 22W 13D 16L from 51 games, 1.55 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-W. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Reggina against 1.55 for Benevento. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Reggina have posted 1.76 PPG from 25 outings (14W 2D 9L).
On the road, Benevento have gone 10W 7D 8L from 25 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Reggina are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.41 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggina
Blended
Benevento
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggina and Benevento in coming into this match?
Reggina have gone 21W 10D 20L in their last 51 games (1.43 PPG), while Benevento have gone 22W 13D 16L in their last 51 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggina at home or Benevento away?
Reggina's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggina at home: 1.76 PPG; Benevento away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Reggina or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggina have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Benevento in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Benevento won 4-0 on 27 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reggina have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Benevento — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Reggina
2
Draws
2
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Benevento?
From 4 meetings on record, Reggina have won 0, Benevento have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Reggina and Benevento last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2023, when Benevento 1-1 Reggina.
Who has won more matches between Reggina and Benevento?
Benevento have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggina 36%, Benevento 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Reggina) and 28% (Benevento).
On the defensive side: Reggina keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Benevento in 32%; Reggina have failed to score in 28% of games; Benevento in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggina home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggina play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Reggina's recent matches and 40% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reggina vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Reggina's recent games and 28% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggina and Benevento tend to score early?
Reggina have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Benevento in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Reggina and Benevento share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Oreste Granillo, Regular Season - 14, as Reggina and Benevento drew 2-2 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggina 1.63 xG and Benevento 1.04 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Benevento outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggina attack 1.44 / defence 0.96 against Benevento attack 0.99 / defence 0.91, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggina 50% | Draw 28% | Benevento 23%, with Reggina to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggina 41%, Benevento 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggina's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Benevento's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggina 1.43 PPG, Benevento 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Reggina (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Benevento (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.