Reggiana 1-2 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cremonese at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reggiana vs Cremonese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore plays host to Reggiana versus Cremonese in Serie B (matchday 32). Kick-off: Friday 4 April 2025 at 20:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Reggiana have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Reggiana have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Cremonese (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Cremonese's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Cremonese are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Reggiana, 0 for Cremonese and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Dec 2024, ended Reggiana 2–0 Cremonese — a Reggiana win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Reggiana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Cremonese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 49% versus Cremonese 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggiana 38% | Cremonese 55%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Reggiana surrender their half-time lead 47% of the time, while Cremonese have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 53% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.09 xG and Cremonese 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.908 / defence 1.104 | Cremonese attack 1.237 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.137. Cremonese have an above-average attack rating of 1.237, which lifts their away xG to 1.55. Data: built from Reggiana's last 69 games and Cremonese's last 69.
Result probabilities: Reggiana 25% | Draw 28% | Cremonese 46%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 3.95 | Draw 3.54 | Cremonese 2.15. Cremonese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cremonese if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Reggiana 50% (last 10 home games) | Cremonese 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, matchday 32 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Friday 4 April 2025 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 25% | Draw 28% | Cremonese 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Reggiana 1.09 / Cremonese 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 0.908 / def 1.104 | Cremonese attack 1.237 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.249 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Cremonese xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Reggiana vs Cremonese FAQs
What time does Reggiana vs Cremonese kick off?
Reggiana vs Cremonese kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Friday 4 April 2025 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Cremonese?
Reggiana 1 - 2 Cremonese.
Where is Reggiana vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Cremonese part of?
Reggiana vs Cremonese is a Serie B fixture (matchday 32) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 25% chance of winning, Cremonese a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Reggiana and Cremonese will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Reggiana vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Reggiana's attack at 0.91x the league average against Cremonese's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cremonese's attack (1.24x) against Reggiana's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from Reggiana's last 69 games and Cremonese's last 69 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.5%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
25%
3.95
28%
3.54
46%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Reggiana xG
Total xG
2.64
1.55
Cremonese xG
3.95
25%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.15
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
21%
4.72
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
5%
18.67
16%
6.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 11.0 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Reggiana vs Cremonese Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Reggiana and 1.55 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Reggiana come into this having played 69 games, going 17W 28D 24L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-L.
On the other side, Cremonese sit at 1.68 PPG from 69 outings (32W 20D 17L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-D across their last five.
Cremonese carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Reggiana — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Reggiana's home form reads 7W 17D 10L across their last 34 home games, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Cremonese have taken 1.68 points per game from their last 34 away games (16W 9D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Reggiana are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.51 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Current Season
Cremonese
Current Season
Reggiana (Home) vs Cremonese (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Reggiana
Current Season
Cremonese
Current Season
❓ Reggiana vs Cremonese Form FAQs
What form are Reggiana and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 17W 28D 24L in their last 69 games (1.14 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 32W 20D 17L in their last 69 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggiana at home or Cremonese away?
Cremonese's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggiana at home: 1.12 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Reggiana or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggiana have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Cremonese in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Reggiana and Cremonese, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 4 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reggiana have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cremonese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Reggiana
2
Draws
1
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Reggiana vs Cremonese H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Cremonese?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Reggiana have won 1, Cremonese have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Cremonese last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 April 2025: Reggiana 1-2 Cremonese.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 56% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Cremonese see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggiana 53%, Cremonese 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Reggiana) and 56% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Cremonese in 32%; Reggiana have failed to score in 32% of games; Cremonese in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Reggiana vs Cremonese Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Reggiana and Cremonese matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Reggiana's recent matches and 50% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Reggiana and Cremonese matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Reggiana's recent games and 56% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggiana and Cremonese matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Reggiana's recent matches and 59% of Cremonese's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cremonese edge out Reggiana 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Reggiana 1-2 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.09 xG and Cremonese 1.55 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.91 / defence 1.10 against Cremonese attack 1.24 / defence 0.96, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 25% | Draw 28% | Cremonese 46%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 38%, Cremonese 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggiana's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Cremonese's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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