Pordenone 1-1 Spal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spal at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pordenone vs Spal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Spal travel to Stadio Guido Teghil to take on Pordenone. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 February 2022, 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pordenone stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pordenone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pordenone have posted 1W 3D 6L at Stadio Guido Teghil — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Across all Serie B games this season, Spal have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Spal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Spal have gone 3W 2D 4L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.22 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Pordenone at 0.90 PPG versus Spal's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Pordenone have won 0, Spal 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 0–5 with Spal winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Pordenone trading profile (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Spal trading profile (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pordenone 50% versus Spal 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pordenone 45% | Spal 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pordenone 0.95 xG and Spal 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pordenone attack 0.822 / defence 1.297 | Spal attack 0.709 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 0.943 / away 1.182. Spal bring a strong defensive rating of 1.230 — this is suppressing Pordenone's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Pordenone games / 20 Spal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pordenone 29% | Draw 36% | Spal 36%. Fair-value odds: Pordenone 3.45 | Draw 2.78 | Spal 2.78. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Pordenone 50% | Spal 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pordenone vs Spal | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Guido Teghil • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Feb 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pordenone 29% | Draw 36% | Spal 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 43% | xG Pordenone 0.95 / Spal 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Pordenone attack 0.822 / def 1.297 | Spal attack 0.709 / def 1.230 | league avg home 0.943 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Pordenone xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Spal xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pordenone vs Spal kick off?
Pordenone vs Spal kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 6 February 2022 at Stadio Guido Teghil.
What was the final score in Pordenone vs Spal?
Pordenone 1 - 1 Spal.
Where is Pordenone vs Spal being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Guido Teghil.
What competition is Pordenone vs Spal part of?
Pordenone vs Spal is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pordenone vs Spal?
Our statistical model gives Pordenone a 29% chance of winning, Spal a 36% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Pordenone vs Spal?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Pordenone and Spal will score (BTTS).
Will Pordenone vs Spal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pordenone and Spal?
Record (1 meetings): Pordenone 0W | Draws 0 | Spal 1W.
What form are Pordenone and Spal in?
Pordenone (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Spal (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Pordenone's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Spal's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. The same calculation in reverse, Spal's attack versus Pordenone's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spal Win
29%
3.48
36%
2.81
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Pordenone xG
Total xG
2.04
1.09
Spal xG
3.48
29%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
10%
10.34
14%
7.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 14.1 | 7.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pordenone vs Spal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Pordenone and Spal expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Pordenone and 1.09 for Spal, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Pordenone vs Spal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pordenone's recent record stands at 2W 5D 13L from 20 games, a 0.55 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Pordenone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Spal, meanwhile, have gone 5W 7D 8L across 20 games — 1.10 PPG, with W-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Spal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Spal by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pordenone heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Pordenone have managed 1W 3D 5L from 9 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Spal's away record stands at 3W 2D 4L across 9 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pordenone are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Spal are on 1.15 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 20 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pordenone
Blended
Spal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pordenone and Spal in coming into this match?
Pordenone have gone 2W 5D 13L in their last 20 games (0.55 PPG), while Spal have gone 5W 7D 8L in their last 20 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pordenone at home or Spal away?
Spal's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pordenone at home: 0.67 PPG; Spal away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pordenone
1
Draws
1
Spal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pordenone and Spal?
From 2 meetings on record, Pordenone have won 0, Spal have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pordenone and Spal last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2022, when Pordenone 1-1 Spal.
Who has won more matches between Pordenone and Spal?
Spal have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pordenone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pordenone 56%, Spal 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Pordenone) and 33% (Spal).
On the defensive side: Spal in 33%; Pordenone have failed to score in 33% of games; Spal in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pordenone home games / Spal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pordenone play Spal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Pordenone's recent matches and 33% of Spal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pordenone vs Spal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Pordenone's recent games and 33% of Spal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pordenone and Spal tend to score early?
Pordenone have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Spal in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pordenone and Spal share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pordenone and Spal finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Guido Teghil, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pordenone 0.95 xG and Spal 1.09 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pordenone attack 0.82 / defence 1.30 against Spal attack 0.71 / defence 1.23, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pordenone 29% | Draw 36% | Spal 36%, with Spal to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pordenone 45%, Spal 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pordenone's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Spal's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Spal arrived the stronger side — 1.10 PPG against 0.55. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Pordenone (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.