Pordenone 2-0 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Frosinone at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pordenone vs Frosinone encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Frosinone make the trip to Stadio Guido Teghil to face Pordenone in Serie B, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Tuesday 5 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Pordenone's overall Serie B record this term: 0W 2D 8L from 10 games (0.20 PPG). Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
Pordenone's home record at Stadio Guido Teghil: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie B appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Frosinone (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Frosinone have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Frosinone are 1.20 PPG clear of Pordenone in recent Serie B fixtures (1.40 vs 0.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Pordenone lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Pordenone — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Frosinone — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pordenone 50% versus Frosinone 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pordenone 38% | Frosinone 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pordenone 0.99 xG and Frosinone 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pordenone attack 0.705 / defence 1.413 | Frosinone attack 0.830 / defence 1.335. League average goals — home 1.049 / away 1.037. Pordenone's attack strength of 0.705 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Frosinone bring a strong defensive rating of 1.335 — this is suppressing Pordenone's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Pordenone games / 32 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pordenone 27% | Draw 35% | Frosinone 38%. Fair-value odds: Pordenone 3.70 | Draw 2.86 | Frosinone 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Frosinone are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Frosinone if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Pordenone 50% | Frosinone 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pordenone vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadio Guido Teghil • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pordenone 27% | Draw 35% | Frosinone 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 47% | xG Pordenone 0.99 / Frosinone 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Pordenone attack 0.705 / def 1.413 | Frosinone attack 0.830 / def 1.335 | league avg home 1.049 / away 1.037 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Pordenone xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Frosinone xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pordenone vs Frosinone kick off?
Pordenone vs Frosinone kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 5 April 2022 at Stadio Guido Teghil.
What was the final score in Pordenone vs Frosinone?
Pordenone 2 - 0 Frosinone.
Where is Pordenone vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Guido Teghil.
What competition is Pordenone vs Frosinone part of?
Pordenone vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pordenone vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Pordenone a 27% chance of winning, Frosinone a 38% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pordenone vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Pordenone and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Pordenone vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pordenone and Frosinone?
Record (1 meetings): Pordenone 0W | Draws 1 | Frosinone 0W.
What form are Pordenone and Frosinone in?
Pordenone (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Frosinone (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Pordenone's attack at 0.70x the league average against Frosinone's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Frosinone's attack (0.83x) against Pordenone's defence (1.41x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
27%
3.74
35%
2.85
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Pordenone xG
Total xG
2.20
1.22
Frosinone xG
3.74
27%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
8%
12.62
14%
7.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 13.4 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.3 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pordenone vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Pordenone and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Pordenone and 1.22 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Pordenone vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pordenone come into this having played 32 games, going 2W 8D 22L for 0.44 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L.
On the other side, Frosinone sit at 1.59 PPG from 32 outings (13W 12D 7L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-L across their last five.
Frosinone carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.15 PPG clear of Pordenone — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Pordenone's home form reads 1W 6D 9L across 16 games on their own ground, a 0.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Frosinone have taken 1.31 points per game from 16 outings (5W 6D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Frosinone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pordenone are averaging 0.69 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.47 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Frosinone in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pordenone
Current Season
Frosinone
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pordenone and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Pordenone have gone 2W 8D 22L in their last 32 games (0.44 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 13W 12D 7L in their last 32 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pordenone at home or Frosinone away?
Frosinone's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pordenone at home: 0.56 PPG; Frosinone away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Pordenone or Frosinone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pordenone have kept a clean sheet in 6% of their recent games, Frosinone in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Pordenone
1
Draws
0
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pordenone and Frosinone?
From 2 meetings on record, Pordenone have won 1, Frosinone have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pordenone and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2022, when Pordenone 2-0 Frosinone.
Who has won more matches between Pordenone and Frosinone?
Pordenone have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pordenone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pordenone 56%, Frosinone 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Pordenone and 38% for Frosinone.
On the defensive side: Pordenone have failed to score in 38% of games; Frosinone in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pordenone home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pordenone play Frosinone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Pordenone's recent matches and 50% of Frosinone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pordenone vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Pordenone's recent games and 38% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pordenone and Frosinone tend to score early?
Pordenone have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pordenone cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Frosinone.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pordenone beat Frosinone 2-0 at Stadio Guido Teghil, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pordenone 0.99 xG and Frosinone 1.22 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Pordenone beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Frosinone landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pordenone attack 0.70 / defence 1.41 against Frosinone attack 0.83 / defence 1.33, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pordenone 27% | Draw 35% | Frosinone 38%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Pordenone win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pordenone 38%, Frosinone 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pordenone's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Frosinone's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.44. Form was overturned, with Pordenone winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pordenone (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line. Frosinone (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.