Pordenone 2-0 Alessandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Alessandria at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pordenone vs Alessandria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pordenone and Alessandria meet at Stadio Guido Teghil in Serie B, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 30 November 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Pordenone's overall Serie B record this term: 0W 4D 6L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pordenone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pordenone have posted 0W 2D 5L at Stadio Guido Teghil — 0.29 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Alessandria have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Alessandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alessandria's away record: 1W 1D 5L from 7 road trips in Serie B this season (0.57 PPG). Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.57 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Alessandria are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Pordenone — key trading statistics (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Alessandria — key trading statistics (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pordenone 50% versus Alessandria 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pordenone 50% | Alessandria 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pordenone 1.13 xG and Alessandria 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pordenone attack 0.796 / defence 1.605 | Alessandria attack 0.938 / defence 1.425. League average goals — home 1.000 / away 1.155. Pordenone's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Alessandria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.425 — this is suppressing Pordenone's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Pordenone games / 14 Alessandria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pordenone 24% | Draw 25% | Alessandria 51%. Fair-value odds: Pordenone 4.17 | Draw 4.00 | Alessandria 1.96. Alessandria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alessandria are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alessandria if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Pordenone 57% | Alessandria 57% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pordenone vs Alessandria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Guido Teghil • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 Nov 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pordenone 24% | Draw 25% | Alessandria 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Pordenone 1.13 / Alessandria 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Pordenone attack 0.796 / def 1.605 | Alessandria attack 0.938 / def 1.425 | league avg home 1.000 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Alessandria (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Pordenone xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Alessandria xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pordenone vs Alessandria kick off?
Pordenone vs Alessandria kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 30 November 2021 at Stadio Guido Teghil.
What was the final score in Pordenone vs Alessandria?
Pordenone 2 - 0 Alessandria.
Where is Pordenone vs Alessandria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Guido Teghil.
What competition is Pordenone vs Alessandria part of?
Pordenone vs Alessandria is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pordenone vs Alessandria?
Our statistical model gives Pordenone a 24% chance of winning, Alessandria a 51% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Alessandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pordenone vs Alessandria?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Pordenone and Alessandria will score (BTTS).
Will Pordenone vs Alessandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pordenone and Alessandria?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pordenone and Alessandria in?
Pordenone (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Alessandria (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Pordenone's attack rating (0.80) and Alessandria's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Alessandria's attack (0.94x) against Pordenone's defence (1.60x) — and the away total comes out at 1.74.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alessandria Win
24%
4.18
25%
3.93
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Pordenone xG
Total xG
2.87
1.74
Alessandria xG
4.18
24%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
18%
5.69
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
4%
23.81
16%
6.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.8 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.3 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pordenone vs Alessandria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Pordenone and Alessandria expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Pordenone and 1.74 for Alessandria, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Pordenone vs Alessandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pordenone come into this having played 14 games, going 0W 4D 10L for 0.29 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D. The sample for Pordenone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Alessandria sit at 1.00 PPG from 14 outings (4W 2D 8L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Alessandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alessandria carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of Pordenone — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Pordenone's home form reads 0W 2D 5L across 7 games on their own ground, a 0.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Alessandria have taken 0.57 points per game from 7 outings (1W 1D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Alessandria's season.
Attack vs Defence
Pordenone are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game recently; Alessandria are on 1.07 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 14 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pordenone
Blended
Alessandria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pordenone and Alessandria in coming into this match?
Pordenone have gone 0W 4D 10L in their last 14 games (0.29 PPG), while Alessandria have gone 4W 2D 8L in their last 14 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pordenone at home or Alessandria away?
Alessandria's away record (0.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pordenone at home: 0.29 PPG; Alessandria away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Pordenone
0
Draws
1
Alessandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pordenone and Alessandria?
From 2 meetings on record, Pordenone have won 1, Alessandria have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pordenone and Alessandria last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2022, when Alessandria 2-0 Pordenone.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pordenone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Alessandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pordenone 57%, Alessandria 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Pordenone) and 43% (Alessandria).
On the defensive side: Pordenone have failed to score in 43% of games; Alessandria in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pordenone home games / Alessandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pordenone play Alessandria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Pordenone's games and 57% of Alessandria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pordenone vs Alessandria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Pordenone's recent games and 43% of Alessandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pordenone and Alessandria tend to score early?
Pordenone have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Alessandria in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pordenone cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Alessandria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pordenone beat Alessandria 2-0 at Stadio Guido Teghil, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pordenone 1.13 xG and Alessandria 1.74 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Pordenone beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Alessandria landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pordenone attack 0.80 / defence 1.60 against Alessandria attack 0.94 / defence 1.43, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pordenone 24% | Draw 25% | Alessandria 51%, with Alessandria to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Pordenone win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pordenone 50%, Alessandria 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pordenone's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Alessandria's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Alessandria arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.29. Form was overturned, with Pordenone winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pordenone (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line. Alessandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.