Pisa vs Cremonese – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Pisa at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pisa vs Cremonese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 7 as Pisa welcome Cremonese to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Pisa — All Games: 1W 0D 9L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Pisa haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pisa have posted 1W 1D 8L at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani — 0.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cremonese stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Cremonese haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Cremonese's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Cremonese — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Pisa, 2 for Cremonese and 2 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 0–3 with Cremonese winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Pisa in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 37% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 55% of games.
Cremonese in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 42% versus Cremonese 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 53% | Cremonese 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.51 xG and Cremonese 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Cremonese attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.071. Data: 0 Pisa games / 0 Cremonese games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Pisa 47% | Draw 28% | Cremonese 25%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Cremonese 4.00. Pisa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Pisa dominate the H2H record, yet Cremonese are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pisa at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cremonese (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Pisa 60% | Cremonese 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 47% | Draw 28% | Cremonese 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Pisa 1.51 / Cremonese 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Cremonese attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Pisa (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Cremonese xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Cremonese kick off?
Pisa vs Cremonese is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
Where is Pisa vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Cremonese part of?
Pisa vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 47% chance of winning, Cremonese a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Pisa and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Cremonese?
Record (8 meetings): Pisa 4W | Draws 2 | Cremonese 2W.
What form are Pisa and Cremonese in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Pisa (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pisa's attack at 0.85x the league average against Cremonese's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
47%
2.15
28%
3.52
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.56
1.05
Cremonese xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
16%
6.11
6%
18.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.3 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Pisa and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Pisa and 1.05 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pisa's recent record stands at 2W 12D 24L from 38 games, a 0.47 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. Pisa haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Cremonese, meanwhile, have gone 8W 10D 20L across 38 games — 0.89 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five. Cremonese haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cremonese by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pisa heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Pisa have managed 2W 4D 13L from 19 games — 0.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cremonese's away record stands at 5W 3D 11L across 19 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pisa are averaging 0.68 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 0.84 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Pre-Season
Cremonese
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 2W 12D 24L in their last 38 games (0.47 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 8W 10D 20L in their last 38 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Cremonese away?
Cremonese's away record (0.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 0.53 PPG; Cremonese away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Mar 2022, when Pisa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pisa's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Pisa
2
Draws
2
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Cremonese?
From 8 meetings on record, Pisa have won 4, Cremonese have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Cremonese 3-0 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Cremonese?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pisa see a goal before the break in 37% of their matches.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Pisa 32% BTTS, Cremonese 32%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Pisa) and 42% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Pisa have failed to score in 63% of games; Cremonese in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Pisa's recent matches and 32% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Pisa's recent games and 42% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Cremonese tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 37% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.