Perugia 3-3 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Perugia at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Perugia vs Palermo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Renato Curi plays host to Perugia versus Palermo in Serie B, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 14 January 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Perugia's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Perugia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Perugia at Stadio Renato Curi this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renato Curi.
Palermo (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Palermo have posted 2W 3D 4L from 9 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Perugia, 1.60 for Palermo — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Perugia lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2022, ended 0–2 with Palermo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Perugia half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Palermo half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Perugia 42% versus Palermo 37%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Perugia 37% | Palermo 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Perugia 1.14 xG and Palermo 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Perugia attack 0.886 / defence 1.014 | Palermo attack 0.858 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.131 / away 1.089. Data: 57 Perugia games / 19 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Perugia 38% | Draw 33% | Palermo 28%. Fair-value odds: Perugia 2.63 | Draw 3.03 | Palermo 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Perugia at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Perugia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Perugia 40% | Palermo 44% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Perugia vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Renato Curi • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Jan 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Perugia 38% | Draw 33% | Palermo 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Perugia 1.14 / Palermo 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Perugia attack 0.886 / def 1.014 | Palermo attack 0.858 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.131 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Perugia (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Perugia xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Palermo xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Perugia vs Palermo kick off?
Perugia vs Palermo kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 14 January 2023 at Stadio Renato Curi.
What was the final score in Perugia vs Palermo?
Perugia 3 - 3 Palermo.
Where is Perugia vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Curi.
What competition is Perugia vs Palermo part of?
Perugia vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Perugia vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Perugia a 38% chance of winning, Palermo a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Perugia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Perugia vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Perugia and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Perugia vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Palermo?
Record (1 meetings): Perugia 0W | Draws 0 | Palermo 1W.
What form are Perugia and Palermo in?
Perugia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Palermo (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Perugia's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Palermo's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Palermo's attack (0.86x) against Perugia's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 57/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Perugia Win
38%
2.61
33%
2.99
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Perugia xG
Total xG
2.09
0.95
Palermo xG
2.61
38%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
15%
6.73
9%
11.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 11.7 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Perugia vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Perugia and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Perugia and 0.95 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Perugia vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Perugia's recent record stands at 5W 4D 10L from 19 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Perugia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palermo, meanwhile, have gone 6W 6D 7L across 19 games — 1.26 PPG, with W-D-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Perugia against 1.26 for Palermo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Perugia have managed 3W 2D 4L from 9 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Palermo's away record stands at 2W 3D 4L across 9 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Perugia are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.00 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Palermo in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Perugia
Blended
Palermo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Perugia and Palermo in coming into this match?
Perugia have gone 5W 4D 10L in their last 19 games (1.00 PPG), while Palermo have gone 6W 6D 7L in their last 19 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Perugia at home or Palermo away?
Perugia's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Perugia at home: 1.22 PPG; Palermo away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Perugia or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Palermo in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Perugia
1
Draws
1
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Palermo?
From 2 meetings on record, Perugia have won 0, Palermo have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Perugia and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 14 January 2023, when Perugia 3-3 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Perugia and Palermo?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Perugia 44%, Palermo 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Perugia) and 33% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Perugia keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Perugia have failed to score in 33% of games; Palermo in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Perugia home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Perugia play Palermo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Perugia's recent matches and 44% of Palermo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Perugia vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Perugia's recent games and 33% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Perugia and Palermo tend to score early?
Perugia have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Palermo in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Perugia and Palermo share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Perugia and Palermo finished level at 3-3 at Stadio Renato Curi, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Perugia 1.14 xG and Palermo 0.95 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Perugia beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Palermo outscored their 0.95 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Perugia attack 0.89 / defence 1.01 against Palermo attack 0.86 / defence 1.14, drawn from 57/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Perugia 38% | Draw 33% | Palermo 28%, with Perugia to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Perugia 37%, Palermo 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Perugia's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Palermo's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Perugia 1.00 PPG, Palermo 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Perugia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palermo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.