Parma 1-1 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Parma at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Parma vs Sampdoria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Parma host Sampdoria at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Serie B (matchday 6). Kick-off is Sunday 24 September 2023 at 16:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Parma — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Parma's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sampdoria stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Sampdoria have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
On current form, Parma have the edge — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Parma in-play and half-time data (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Sampdoria in-play and half-time data (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 51% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 40% versus Sampdoria 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 37% | Sampdoria 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.33 xG and Sampdoria 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 1.035 / defence 0.693 | Sampdoria attack 0.950 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.120 / away 1.128. Parma have a tight defence (rating 0.693), which is pulling Sampdoria's projected output down. Data: built from Parma's last 43 games and Sampdoria's last 5.
Result probabilities: Parma 49% | Draw 32% | Sampdoria 19%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.06 | Draw 3.08 | Sampdoria 5.28. Parma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Parma at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 66% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Parma 30% (last 10 home games) | Sampdoria 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie B, matchday 6 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Sunday 24 September 2023 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 49% | Draw 32% | Sampdoria 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Parma 1.33 / Sampdoria 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 1.035 / def 0.693 | Sampdoria attack 0.950 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.120 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Parma (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Parma xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Sampdoria xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Parma vs Sampdoria FAQs
What time does Parma vs Sampdoria kick off?
Parma vs Sampdoria kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Sunday 24 September 2023 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Sampdoria?
Parma 1 - 1 Sampdoria.
Where is Parma vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Sampdoria part of?
Parma vs Sampdoria is a Serie B fixture (matchday 6) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 49% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 19% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Parma and Sampdoria will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Parma vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Parma's attack at 1.03x the league average against Sampdoria's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sampdoria's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Parma's last 43 games and Sampdoria's last 5 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
49%
2.06
32%
3.08
19%
5.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Parma xG
Total xG
2.07
0.74
Sampdoria xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
5.28
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.47
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
23%
4.33
5%
19.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 12.4 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 8.3 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Parma vs Sampdoria Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Parma and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Parma and 0.74 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Parma's recent record stands at 21W 10D 12L from 43 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five.
Sampdoria, meanwhile, have gone 4W 11D 28L across 43 games — 0.53 PPG, with W-L-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Parma by 1.17 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sampdoria heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Parma have managed 12W 3D 6L from their last 21 home games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sampdoria's away record stands at 3W 4D 14L across their last 21 away games, a 0.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Parma are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 0.67 scored and 1.84 conceded.
Defensively: Parma have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Early Season
Sampdoria
Early Season
Parma (Home) vs Sampdoria (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Parma
Early Season
Sampdoria
Early Season
❓ Parma vs Sampdoria Form FAQs
What form are Parma and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 21W 10D 12L in their last 43 games (1.70 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 4W 11D 28L in their last 43 (0.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Sampdoria away?
Parma's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.86 PPG; Sampdoria away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Parma or Sampdoria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Sampdoria in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 19 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Parma
1
Draws
0
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Parma vs Sampdoria H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Sampdoria?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Parma have won 1, Sampdoria have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Parma and Sampdoria last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 January 2024: Sampdoria 0-3 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Sampdoria?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 33%, Sampdoria 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Parma) and 52% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Parma keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Parma have failed to score in 33% of games; Sampdoria in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Parma vs Sampdoria Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Parma and Sampdoria matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Parma's recent matches and 48% of Sampdoria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Parma and Sampdoria matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Parma's recent games and 52% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Sampdoria matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Parma's recent matches and 76% of Sampdoria's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Parma and Sampdoria share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma and Sampdoria finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.33 xG and Sampdoria 0.74 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 1.03 / defence 0.69 against Sampdoria attack 0.95 / defence 1.15, drawn from 43/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 49% | Draw 32% | Sampdoria 19%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 37%, Sampdoria 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Sampdoria's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.53. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sampdoria (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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