Palermo 3-3 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palermo vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Pisa travel to Stadio Renzo Barbera to take on Palermo. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 October 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Palermo have gone 2W 1D 5L from 8 outings — a 0.88 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.75 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Palermo have gone 2W 0D 2L this season (4 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renzo Barbera. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.88 — Palermo are significantly better at Stadio Renzo Barbera than their overall form suggests.
Pisa — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.88 PPG (Palermo) versus 0.60 (Pisa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Palermo trading profile (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Pisa trading profile (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 25% versus Pisa 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 38% | Pisa 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.36 xG and Pisa 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 0.871 / defence 1.114 | Pisa attack 1.195 / defence 1.236. League average goals — home 1.264 / away 1.096. Pisa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.236 — this is suppressing Palermo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Palermo games / 46 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 35% | Draw 25% | Pisa 40%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | Pisa 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pisa are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Palermo 25% | Pisa 80%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 35% | Draw 25% | Pisa 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Palermo 1.36 / Pisa 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 0.871 / def 1.114 | Pisa attack 1.195 / def 1.236 | league avg home 1.264 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Pisa (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Pisa xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Pisa kick off?
Palermo vs Pisa kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Pisa?
Palermo 3 - 3 Pisa.
Where is Palermo vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Pisa part of?
Palermo vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 35% chance of winning, Pisa a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Palermo and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Pisa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Palermo and Pisa in?
Palermo (all comps): 2W-1D-5L in 8 | 0.88 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Pisa (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Palermo's attack at 0.87x the league average against Pisa's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Palermo's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
35%
2.84
25%
3.98
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.82
1.46
Pisa xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
23%
4.30
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
8%
12.22
10%
9.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.8 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.1 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Palermo and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Palermo and 1.46 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Palermo's recent record stands at 2W 1D 5L from 8 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 1W 3D 4L across 8 games — 0.75 PPG, with L-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Palermo on 0.88 PPG, Pisa on 0.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Palermo have managed 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.88 PPG overall — Palermo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Pisa's away record stands at 1W 1D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Palermo are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.25 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Palermo have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Pisa in 62%.
Last 8 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Pisa in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 2W 1D 5L in their last 8 games (0.88 PPG), while Pisa have gone 1W 3D 4L in their last 8 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Pisa away?
Palermo's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.50 PPG; Pisa away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Pisa have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Palermo's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Palermo
2
Draws
3
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Pisa?
From 6 meetings on record, Palermo have won 1, Pisa have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2025, when Palermo 1-2 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 25%, Pisa 100% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Palermo) and 75% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Pisa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 25% of Palermo's games and 100% of Pisa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Palermo vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Palermo's recent games and 75% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Pisa tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Pisa in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palermo and Pisa share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo and Pisa finished level at 3-3 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.36 xG and Pisa 1.46 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Palermo beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pisa outscored their 1.46 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 0.87 / defence 1.11 against Pisa attack 1.20 / defence 1.24, drawn from 8/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 35% | Draw 25% | Pisa 40%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 38%, Pisa 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did.
Pisa's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palermo 0.88 PPG, Pisa 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Palermo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.