Palermo 0-0 Cittadella – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palermo at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palermo vs Cittadella fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Renzo Barbera plays host to Palermo versus Cittadella in Serie B, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 23 October 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form
Palermo (all games): 2W 2D 5L across 9 Serie B fixtures this term — 0.89 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palermo's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 2L across 5 games at Stadio Renzo Barbera this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.89 — Palermo are significantly better at Stadio Renzo Barbera than their overall form suggests.
Cittadella's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cittadella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cittadella away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.89 PPG for Palermo against 1.00 for Cittadella. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Palermo half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Cittadella half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 33% versus Cittadella 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Palermo 44% | Cittadella 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.32 xG and Cittadella 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.019 / defence 1.206 | Cittadella attack 0.778 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.127. Data: 9 Palermo games / 47 Cittadella games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 43% | Draw 28% | Cittadella 30%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Cittadella 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palermo at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palermo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Palermo 40% | Cittadella 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Cittadella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 43% | Draw 28% | Cittadella 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Palermo 1.32 / Cittadella 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 1.019 / def 1.206 | Cittadella attack 0.778 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Palermo (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Cittadella xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Cittadella kick off?
Palermo vs Cittadella kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Cittadella?
Palermo 0 - 0 Cittadella.
Where is Palermo vs Cittadella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Cittadella part of?
Palermo vs Cittadella is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Cittadella?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 43% chance of winning, Cittadella a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Cittadella?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Palermo and Cittadella will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Cittadella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Cittadella?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Palermo and Cittadella in?
Palermo (all comps): 2W-2D-5L in 9 | 0.89 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.67 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Cittadella (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Palermo's attack rating (1.02) and Cittadella's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cittadella's attack (0.78x) against Palermo's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 9/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
43%
2.35
28%
3.63
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.37
1.06
Cittadella xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
8%
12.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.0 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Cittadella?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Palermo and Cittadella expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Palermo and 1.06 for Cittadella, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Cittadella?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Palermo come into this having played 9 games, going 2W 2D 5L for 0.89 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-D. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cittadella sit at 1.11 PPG from 9 outings (2W 4D 3L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Cittadella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.89 PPG for Palermo against 1.11 for Cittadella. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Palermo's home form reads 1W 1D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Cittadella have taken 0.50 points per game from 4 outings (0W 2D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.11 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cittadella's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Palermo are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Cittadella are on 0.89 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Blended
Cittadella
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Cittadella in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 2W 2D 5L in their last 9 games (0.89 PPG), while Cittadella have gone 2W 4D 3L in their last 9 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Cittadella away?
Palermo's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.00 PPG; Cittadella away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Palermo or Cittadella been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Cittadella in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 December 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Cittadella go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palermo have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cittadella — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Palermo
2
Draws
4
Cittadella
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Cittadella?
From 6 meetings on record, Palermo have won 0, Cittadella have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Cittadella last play each other?
They last met on 29 December 2024, when Cittadella 2-1 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Cittadella?
Cittadella have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cittadella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 50%, Cittadella 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Palermo) and 50% (Cittadella).
On the defensive side: Cittadella in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Cittadella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Cittadella?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Palermo's recent matches and 50% of Cittadella's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Cittadella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Palermo's recent games and 50% of Cittadella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Cittadella tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Cittadella in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Palermo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 10, as Palermo and Cittadella drew 0-0 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.32 xG and Cittadella 1.06 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Palermo fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Cittadella landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 1.02 / defence 1.21 against Cittadella attack 0.78 / defence 0.98, drawn from 9/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 43% | Draw 28% | Cittadella 30%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 44%, Cittadella 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cittadella's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palermo 0.89 PPG, Cittadella 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Palermo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Cittadella (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.