Padova 1-2 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Monza at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Padova vs Monza encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Monza travel to Stadio Euganeo to take on Padova. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 February 2026, 16:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Padova stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Padova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Padova's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Euganeo this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Monza — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Monza have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Monza's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Padova's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Padova, 0 for Monza and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Padova winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Padova in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Monza in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Padova 52% versus Monza 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Padova 38% | Monza 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Padova 1.12 xG and Monza 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Padova attack 0.901 / defence 1.219 | Monza attack 1.031 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.019. Data: 21 Padova games / 21 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Padova 31% | Draw 29% | Monza 39%. Fair-value odds: Padova 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Monza 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Monza as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Padova 70% | Monza 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Padova vs Monza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Euganeo • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Feb 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Padova 31% | Draw 29% | Monza 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Padova 1.12 / Monza 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Padova attack 0.901 / def 1.219 | Monza attack 1.031 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: Monza (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Padova xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Monza xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Padova vs Monza kick off?
Padova vs Monza kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 1 February 2026 at Stadio Euganeo.
What was the final score in Padova vs Monza?
Padova 1 - 2 Monza.
Where is Padova vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Euganeo.
What competition is Padova vs Monza part of?
Padova vs Monza is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Padova vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Padova a 31% chance of winning, Monza a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Padova vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Padova and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Padova vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Monza?
Record (1 meetings): Padova 1W | Draws 0 | Monza 0W.
What form are Padova and Monza in?
Padova (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Monza (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Padova's attack rating (0.90) and Monza's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Monza's attack versus Padova's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
31%
3.18
29%
3.42
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Padova xG
Total xG
2.40
1.28
Monza xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
9%
11.45
13%
7.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.6 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Padova vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Padova and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Padova and 1.28 for Monza, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Padova vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Padova's recent record stands at 6W 7D 8L from 21 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Padova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Monza, meanwhile, have gone 12W 5D 4L across 21 games — 1.95 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Monza by 0.76 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Padova heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Padova have managed 2W 5D 3L from 10 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Monza's away record stands at 4W 3D 3L across 10 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.95 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Monza's season.
The Goals Picture
Padova are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.52 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: Monza in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Padova
Blended
Monza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Padova and Monza in coming into this match?
Padova have gone 6W 7D 8L in their last 21 games (1.19 PPG), while Monza have gone 12W 5D 4L in their last 21 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Padova at home or Monza away?
Monza's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Padova at home: 1.10 PPG; Monza away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Padova or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Padova have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Monza in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Padova and Monza runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Padova
0
Draws
1
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Monza?
From 2 meetings on record, Padova have won 1, Monza have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Padova and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Padova 1-2 Monza.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Padova 70%, Monza 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Padova) and 40% (Monza).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Padova home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Padova play Monza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Padova's games and 50% of Monza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Padova vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Padova's recent games and 40% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Padova and Monza tend to score early?
Padova have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Monza in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Monza edge out Padova 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza beat Padova 1-2 at Stadio Euganeo, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Padova 1.12 xG and Monza 1.28 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Padova attack 0.90 / defence 1.22 against Monza attack 1.03 / defence 0.97, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Padova 31% | Draw 29% | Monza 39%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Padova 38%, Monza 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Padova's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Monza's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Monza arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.