Padova vs Carrarese – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Padova at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Padova vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Carrarese travel to Stadio Euganeo to take on Padova. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 October 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Padova have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Padova haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Padova have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stadio Euganeo — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Carrarese — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Carrarese haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Carrarese's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Padova) versus 1.20 (Carrarese). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Padova, 0 for Carrarese and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with Padova winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Padova trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Carrarese trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Padova 50% versus Carrarese 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Padova 40% | Carrarese 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Padova 1.45 xG and Carrarese 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Padova attack 0.883 / defence 0.968 | Carrarese attack 0.967 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.071. Data: 38 Padova games / 38 Carrarese games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Padova 46% | Draw 29% | Carrarese 25%. Fair-value odds: Padova 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Carrarese 4.00. Padova hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Padova as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Padova offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Padova 50% | Carrarese 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Padova vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Euganeo • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Padova 46% | Draw 29% | Carrarese 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Padova 1.45 / Carrarese 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Padova attack 0.883 / def 0.968 | Carrarese attack 0.967 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Padova (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Padova xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Carrarese xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Padova vs Carrarese kick off?
Padova vs Carrarese is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Stadio Euganeo.
Where is Padova vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Euganeo.
What competition is Padova vs Carrarese part of?
Padova vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Padova vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Padova a 46% chance of winning, Carrarese a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Padova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Padova vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Padova and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Padova vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Carrarese?
Record (2 meetings): Padova 1W | Draws 1 | Carrarese 0W.
What form are Padova and Carrarese in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Padova (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Padova's attack rating (0.88) and Carrarese's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Carrarese's attack versus Padova's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Padova Win
46%
2.18
29%
3.43
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Padova xG
Total xG
2.45
1.00
Carrarese xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
6%
17.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Padova vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Padova and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Padova and 1.00 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Padova vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Padova have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 12W 10D 16L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. Padova haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Carrarese's form line: 10W 14D 14L from 38 games, 1.16 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-L. Carrarese haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Padova on 1.21 PPG, Carrarese on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Padova have posted 1.32 PPG from 19 outings (6W 7D 6L).
On the road, Carrarese have gone 3W 6D 10L from 19 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Padova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Padova are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 1.24 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Padova
Pre-Season
Carrarese
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Padova and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Padova have gone 12W 10D 16L in their last 38 games (1.21 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 10W 14D 14L in their last 38 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Padova at home or Carrarese away?
Padova's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Padova at home: 1.32 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Padova or Carrarese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Padova have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Carrarese in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 10 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Padova
1
Draws
0
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Carrarese?
From 2 meetings on record, Padova have won 1, Carrarese have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Padova and Carrarese last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2026, when Padova 1-0 Carrarese.
Who has won more matches between Padova and Carrarese?
Padova have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Padova 58%, Carrarese 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Padova) and 58% (Carrarese).
On the defensive side: Carrarese in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Padova home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Padova play Carrarese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Padova's games and 63% of Carrarese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Padova vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Padova's recent games and 58% of Carrarese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Padova and Carrarese tend to score early?
Padova have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Carrarese in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.