Cosenza 1-2 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cosenza at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cosenza vs Genoa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla plays host to Cosenza versus Genoa in Serie B, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 15 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Cosenza (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cosenza's home record at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Cosenza are significantly better at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla than their overall form suggests.
Genoa's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Genoa have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Cosenza against 1.50 for Genoa. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Cosenza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Genoa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 52% versus Genoa 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cosenza 39% | Genoa 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.19 xG and Genoa 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 1.074 / defence 0.997 | Genoa attack 0.918 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.264 / away 1.096. Data: 46 Cosenza games / 8 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 40% | Draw 29% | Genoa 31%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Genoa 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cosenza at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cosenza if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cosenza 50% | Genoa 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Genoa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 40% | Draw 29% | Genoa 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Cosenza 1.19 / Genoa 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 1.074 / def 0.997 | Genoa attack 0.918 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.264 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Genoa xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Genoa kick off?
Cosenza vs Genoa kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Genoa?
Cosenza 1 - 2 Genoa.
Where is Cosenza vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Genoa part of?
Cosenza vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 40% chance of winning, Genoa a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Cosenza and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Genoa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cosenza and Genoa in?
Cosenza (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Genoa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cosenza's attack rating (1.07) and Genoa's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Genoa's attack (0.92x) against Cosenza's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 46/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
40%
2.48
29%
3.45
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.20
1.00
Genoa xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
9%
10.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Cosenza and 1.00 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cosenza's recent record stands at 12W 13D 21L from 46 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genoa, meanwhile, have gone 8W 19D 19L across 46 games — 0.93 PPG, with D-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Cosenza against 0.93 for Genoa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cosenza have managed 11W 3D 9L from 23 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.07 PPG overall — Cosenza are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Genoa's away record stands at 4W 8D 11L across 23 trips, a 0.87 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cosenza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cosenza are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 0.78 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Genoa in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 12W 13D 21L in their last 46 games (1.07 PPG), while Genoa have gone 8W 19D 19L in their last 46 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Genoa away?
Cosenza's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.57 PPG; Genoa away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Cosenza or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cosenza have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Genoa in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Cosenza
0
Draws
2
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Genoa?
From 2 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 0, Genoa have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2023, when Genoa 4-0 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Genoa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 48%, Genoa 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Cosenza) and 39% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Cosenza have failed to score in 30% of games; Genoa in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Cosenza's recent matches and 39% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cosenza vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Cosenza's recent games and 39% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Genoa tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Genoa in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Genoa defy the odds to beat Cosenza 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Cosenza 1-2 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.19 xG and Genoa 1.00 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Genoa outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 1.07 / defence 1.00 against Genoa attack 0.92 / defence 0.88, drawn from 46/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 40% | Draw 29% | Genoa 31%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Genoa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 39%, Genoa 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Genoa's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cosenza 1.07 PPG, Genoa 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genoa win broke the near-deadlock. Cosenza (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.