Cosenza 1-1 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Cosenza take on Frosinone.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cosenza host Frosinone at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla in Serie B, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 October 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Cosenza — All Games: 3W 1D 3L from 7 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.43 points per game. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.29 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Cosenza have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cosenza at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla this season: 3W 0D 0L from 3 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.43 — Cosenza are significantly better at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Frosinone stand at 2W 4D 1L from 7 Serie B matches — 1.43 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.14 per game is modest, conceding 0.71 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.71 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets from 7 games (57%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Frosinone have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Frosinone's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 0L across 3 road games this term (2.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 3 games (100%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.33 exceeds their overall 1.43 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cosenza at 1.43 PPG versus Frosinone's 1.43. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Cosenza in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games.
Frosinone in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 43% versus Frosinone 29%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cosenza 29% | Frosinone 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 0.92 xG and Frosinone 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 1.016 / defence 0.815 | Frosinone attack 0.843 / defence 0.844. League average goals — home 1.071 / away 1.331. Data: 7 Cosenza games / 7 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 33% | Draw 35% | Frosinone 32%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 3.03 | Draw 2.86 | Frosinone 3.12. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.83 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cosenza 33% | Frosinone 0% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 33% | Draw 35% | Frosinone 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 37% | xG Cosenza 0.92 / Frosinone 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 1.016 / def 0.815 | Frosinone attack 0.843 / def 0.844 | league avg home 1.071 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Frosinone xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Frosinone kick off?
Cosenza vs Frosinone kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Frosinone?
Cosenza 1 - 1 Frosinone.
Where is Cosenza vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Frosinone part of?
Cosenza vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 33% chance of winning, Frosinone a 32% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Cosenza and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Frosinone?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cosenza and Frosinone in?
Cosenza (all comps): 3W-1D-3L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.29 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Frosinone (all comps): 2W-4D-1L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 0.71 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cosenza's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Frosinone's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. The same calculation in reverse, Frosinone's attack versus Cosenza's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.06
35%
2.86
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Cosenza xG
Total xG
1.83
0.92
Frosinone xG
3.06
33%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
13%
7.65
13%
7.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0 | 14.6 | 6.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.7%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Cosenza and 0.92 for Frosinone, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cosenza come into this having played 7 games, going 3W 1D 3L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Cosenza, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Frosinone sit at 1.43 PPG from 7 outings (2W 4D 1L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Frosinone, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cosenza on 1.43 PPG, Frosinone on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cosenza's home form reads 3W 0D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 3.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — Cosenza are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Frosinone have taken 2.33 points per game from 3 outings (2W 1D 0L). That's actually stronger than their 1.43 PPG overall record — Frosinone travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cosenza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cosenza are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.14 scored and 0.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Frosinone in 29%.
Defensively: Frosinone in 57% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Early Season
Frosinone
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 games (1.43 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 2W 4D 1L in their last 7 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Frosinone away?
Cosenza's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 3.00 PPG; Frosinone away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Cosenza or Frosinone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cosenza have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Frosinone in 57%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Cosenza's record when hosting Frosinone specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cosenza
2
Draws
3
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Frosinone?
From 6 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 1, Frosinone have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Frosinone 2-2 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Frosinone?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Frosinone see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Cosenza 33% BTTS, Frosinone 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Cosenza and 0% for Frosinone.
On the defensive side: Cosenza keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Frosinone in 100%; Frosinone in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Frosinone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Cosenza's recent matches and 0% of Frosinone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cosenza vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Cosenza's recent games and 0% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Frosinone tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cosenza and Frosinone share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 8, as Cosenza and Frosinone drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 0.92 xG and Frosinone 0.92 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 1.02 / defence 0.81 against Frosinone attack 0.84 / defence 0.84, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 33% | Draw 35% | Frosinone 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 29%, Frosinone 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Frosinone's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cosenza 1.43 PPG, Frosinone 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Frosinone (home/away splits) shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.