Cosenza 1-0 Cremonese – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Cosenza at 37%, yet the head-to-head data favours Cremonese — this Cosenza vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

Cosenza welcome Cremonese to Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla in Serie B (matchday 1). Kick-off is Sunday 18 August 2024 at 20:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Cosenza have gone 3W 5D 2L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Cosenza have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Cremonese — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Cremonese have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cosenza 1.40 PPG, Cremonese 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

Cremonese have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Cosenza.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Jan 2024, ended Cosenza 0–1 Cremonese — a Cremonese win.

Cremonese have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

Trading Patterns

Cosenza in-play and half-time data (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).

Cremonese in-play and half-time data (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 53% versus Cremonese 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 42% | Cremonese 55%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Cosenza surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Cremonese have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.28 xG and Cremonese 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 1.045 / defence 1.045 | Cremonese attack 0.952 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.213. Data: built from Cosenza's last 38 games and Cremonese's last 38. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Cosenza 37% | Draw 30% | Cremonese 33%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.70 | Draw 3.39 | Cremonese 2.99. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Cosenza as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cosenza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cosenza 80% (last 10 home games) | Cremonese 50% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Cosenza 38 games, Cremonese 38) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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