Cosenza 1-3 Ascoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ascoli at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cosenza vs Ascoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ascoli make the trip to Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla to face Cosenza in Serie B, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Sunday 18 December 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cosenza have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cosenza's home record at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Cosenza are significantly better at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla than their overall form suggests.
Ascoli (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ascoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ascoli have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Ascoli are 0.70 PPG clear of Cosenza in recent Serie B fixtures (1.30 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cosenza lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2022, ended 1–3 with Ascoli winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Cosenza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Ascoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 55% versus Ascoli 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 43% | Ascoli 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.19 xG and Ascoli 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 1.015 / defence 1.100 | Ascoli attack 1.087 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.058. Data: 55 Cosenza games / 55 Ascoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 32% | Draw 32% | Ascoli 36%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | Ascoli 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ascoli at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ascoli if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cosenza 60% | Ascoli 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Dec 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 32% | Draw 32% | Ascoli 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG Cosenza 1.19 / Ascoli 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 1.015 / def 1.100 | Ascoli attack 1.087 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.157 / away 1.058 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Ascoli xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Ascoli kick off?
Cosenza vs Ascoli kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 18 December 2022 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Ascoli?
Cosenza 1 - 3 Ascoli.
Where is Cosenza vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Ascoli part of?
Cosenza vs Ascoli is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 32% chance of winning, Ascoli a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Cosenza and Ascoli will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Ascoli?
Record (2 meetings): Cosenza 0W | Draws 0 | Ascoli 2W.
What form are Cosenza and Ascoli in?
Cosenza (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Ascoli (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cosenza's attack rating (1.01) and Ascoli's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ascoli's attack (1.09x) against Cosenza's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
32%
3.13
32%
3.10
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.45
1.26
Ascoli xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
9%
11.07
11%
9.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.9 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Cosenza and 1.26 for Ascoli, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Ascoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cosenza's recent record stands at 13W 16D 27L from 56 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ascoli, meanwhile, have gone 24W 15D 17L across 56 games — 1.55 PPG, with L-D-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Ascoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ascoli by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cosenza heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cosenza have managed 11W 5D 11L from 27 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.98 PPG overall — Cosenza are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Ascoli's away record stands at 14W 5D 8L across 27 trips, a 1.74 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Cosenza are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.30 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Blended
Ascoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 13W 16D 27L in their last 56 games (0.98 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 24W 15D 17L in their last 56 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Ascoli away?
Ascoli's away record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.41 PPG; Ascoli away: 1.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Cosenza have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cosenza won 3-0 on 19 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cosenza have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ascoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cosenza
1
Draws
3
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Ascoli?
From 6 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 2, Ascoli have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Ascoli last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2024, when Ascoli 0-1 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Ascoli?
Ascoli have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 52%, Ascoli 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Cosenza) and 41% (Ascoli).
On the defensive side: Cosenza have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Ascoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Cosenza's recent matches and 52% of Ascoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cosenza vs Ascoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Cosenza's recent games and 41% of Ascoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Ascoli tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ascoli in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ascoli cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Cosenza.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ascoli beat Cosenza 1-3 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.19 xG and Ascoli 1.26 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Ascoli outscored their 1.26 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 1.01 / defence 1.10 against Ascoli attack 1.09 / defence 1.01, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 32% | Draw 32% | Ascoli 36%, with Ascoli to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 43%, Ascoli 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Ascoli's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ascoli arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.98. Form held, and they took the win. Cosenza (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ascoli (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.