Monza 3-2 Como – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Monza at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Monza vs Como fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
U-Power Stadium plays host to Monza versus Como in Serie B, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 21 November 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Form
Monza (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monza at U-Power Stadium this season: 4W 1D 0L from 5 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at U-Power Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Monza are significantly better at U-Power Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Como have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Como, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Como away from home this season: 2W 3D 1L from 6 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Monza against 1.70 for Como. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Monza half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Como half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 50% versus Como 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Monza 25% | Como 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.16 xG and Como 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 0.975 / defence 0.863 | Como attack 1.034 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.001 / away 1.159. Data: 12 Monza games / 12 Como games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monza 37% | Draw 32% | Como 31%. Fair-value odds: Monza 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | Como 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Monza as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Monza if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Monza 40% | Como 83% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs Como | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: U-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 37% | Draw 32% | Como 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Monza 1.16 / Como 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 0.975 / def 0.863 | Como attack 1.034 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.001 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Monza (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Monza xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Como xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monza vs Como kick off?
Monza vs Como kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at U-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Monza vs Como?
Monza 3 - 2 Como.
Where is Monza vs Como being played?
The match is being played at U-Power Stadium.
What competition is Monza vs Como part of?
Monza vs Como is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs Como?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 37% chance of winning, Como a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Como?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Monza and Como will score (BTTS).
Will Monza vs Como have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Como?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Monza and Como in?
Monza (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Como (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Monza's attack at 0.97x the league average against Como's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Como's attack (1.03x) against Monza's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
37%
2.71
32%
3.08
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Monza xG
Total xG
2.19
1.03
Como xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
13%
7.62
10%
10.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 11.5 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs Como?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Monza and Como expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Monza and 1.03 for Como, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs Como?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Monza's recent record stands at 4W 6D 2L from 12 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Como, meanwhile, have gone 5W 4D 3L across 12 games — 1.58 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Como is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Monza against 1.58 for Como. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Monza have managed 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — 2.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Monza are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Como's away record stands at 2W 2D 1L across 5 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Monza are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Como are on 1.50 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Monza have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Blended
Como
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monza and Como in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 4W 6D 2L in their last 12 games (1.50 PPG), while Como have gone 5W 4D 3L in their last 12 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or Como away?
Monza's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 2.60 PPG; Como away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Monza or Como been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monza have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Como in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Monza have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Como — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Monza
1
Draws
2
Como
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Como?
From 4 meetings on record, Monza have won 1, Como have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Monza and Como last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Monza 1-3 Como.
Who has won more matches between Monza and Como?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 40%, Como 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Monza and 40% for Como.
On the defensive side: Monza keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / Como away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monza play Como?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Monza's games and 80% of Como's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Monza vs Como usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Monza's recent games and 40% of Como's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monza and Como tend to score early?
Monza have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Como in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Monza edge out Como 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza beat Como 3-2 at U-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.16 xG and Como 1.03 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Monza beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Como outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 0.97 / defence 0.86 against Como attack 1.03 / defence 1.19, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monza 37% | Draw 32% | Como 31%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 25%, Como 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Como's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Monza 1.50 PPG, Como 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monza win broke the near-deadlock. Monza (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Como (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.