Monza 2-1 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Monza at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Monza vs Brescia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals as Monza welcome Brescia to U-Power Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 May 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Monza have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at U-Power Stadium, Monza have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at U-Power Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Brescia — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Brescia's away record: 2W 6D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Monza at 1.90 PPG versus Brescia's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Monza, 0 for Brescia and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2022, ended 2–1 with Monza winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Monza in-play tendencies (39 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Brescia in-play tendencies (39 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 51% versus Brescia 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monza 46% | Brescia 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.27 xG and Brescia 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 1.305 / defence 0.900 | Brescia attack 0.784 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.072 / away 1.077. Monza carry an above-average attack strength of 1.305 — their λ of 1.27 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 38 Monza games / 38 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monza 48% | Draw 31% | Brescia 21%. Fair-value odds: Monza 2.08 | Draw 3.23 | Brescia 4.76. Monza hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Monza are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.03 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Monza 30% | Brescia 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals | Venue: U-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 May 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 48% | Draw 31% | Brescia 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 39% | xG Monza 1.27 / Brescia 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 1.305 / def 0.900 | Brescia attack 0.784 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.072 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Monza (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Monza xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Brescia xG
39%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monza vs Brescia kick off?
Monza vs Brescia kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 22 May 2022 at U-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Monza vs Brescia?
Monza 2 - 1 Brescia.
Where is Monza vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at U-Power Stadium.
What competition is Monza vs Brescia part of?
Monza vs Brescia is a Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 48% chance of winning, Brescia a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Monza and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Monza vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Brescia?
Record (3 meetings): Monza 2W | Draws 1 | Brescia 0W.
What form are Monza and Brescia in?
Monza (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Brescia (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Monza's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against Brescia's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Brescia's attack versus Monza's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
48%
2.09
31%
3.26
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Monza xG
Total xG
2.03
0.76
Brescia xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
22%
4.47
6%
16.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 9.9 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 12.7 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 8.1 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Monza and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Monza and 0.76 for Brescia, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Monza's recent record stands at 20W 10D 9L from 39 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-W in the last five.
Brescia, meanwhile, have gone 17W 15D 7L across 39 games — 1.69 PPG, with D-L-W-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Monza on 1.79 PPG, Brescia on 1.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Monza have managed 12W 4D 2L from 18 games — 2.22 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.79 PPG overall — Monza are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Brescia's away record stands at 8W 7D 3L across 18 trips, a 1.72 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Monza are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 1.46 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Monza have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Current Season
Brescia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monza and Brescia in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 20W 10D 9L in their last 39 games (1.79 PPG), while Brescia have gone 17W 15D 7L in their last 39 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or Brescia away?
Monza's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 2.22 PPG; Brescia away: 1.72 PPG.
Have Monza or Brescia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monza have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Brescia in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Monza have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Monza's record when hosting Brescia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Monza
1
Draws
0
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Brescia?
From 4 meetings on record, Monza have won 3, Brescia have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Monza and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2022, when Monza 2-1 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Monza and Brescia?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 50%, Brescia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Monza) and 28% (Brescia).
On the defensive side: Monza keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Brescia in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monza play Brescia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Monza's recent matches and 50% of Brescia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Monza vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Monza's recent games and 28% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monza and Brescia tend to score early?
Monza have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Brescia in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Monza edge out Brescia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza beat Brescia 2-1 at U-Power Stadium, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.27 xG and Brescia 0.76 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 1.30 / defence 0.90 against Brescia attack 0.78 / defence 0.91, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monza 48% | Draw 31% | Brescia 21%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 46%, Brescia 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (39 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Brescia's trading profile (39 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Monza 1.79 PPG, Brescia 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monza win broke the near-deadlock. Brescia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.