Monza 1-1 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Monza at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Monza vs Brescia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 35 as Monza welcome Brescia to U-Power Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 18 April 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Monza have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at U-Power Stadium, Monza have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at U-Power Stadium.
Brescia — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Brescia's away record: 4W 5D 1L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On current form, Monza have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Monza, 0 for Brescia and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2021, ended 2–0 with Monza winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Monza in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Brescia in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 50% versus Brescia 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Monza 44% | Brescia 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.15 xG and Brescia 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 1.254 / defence 0.942 | Brescia attack 0.842 / defence 0.873. League average goals — home 1.053 / away 1.078. Monza carry an above-average attack strength of 1.254 — their λ of 1.15 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 34 Monza games / 34 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monza 41% | Draw 34% | Brescia 25%. Fair-value odds: Monza 2.44 | Draw 2.94 | Brescia 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Monza are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.01 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Monza 40% | Brescia 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: U-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 18 Apr 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 41% | Draw 34% | Brescia 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Monza 1.15 / Brescia 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 1.254 / def 0.942 | Brescia attack 0.842 / def 0.873 | league avg home 1.053 / away 1.078 • Poisson stance: Monza (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Monza xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Brescia xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monza vs Brescia kick off?
Monza vs Brescia kicked off at 19:30 on Monday 18 April 2022 at U-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Monza vs Brescia?
Monza 1 - 1 Brescia.
Where is Monza vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at U-Power Stadium.
What competition is Monza vs Brescia part of?
Monza vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 41% chance of winning, Brescia a 25% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Monza and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Monza vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Brescia?
Record (1 meetings): Monza 1W | Draws 0 | Brescia 0W.
What form are Monza and Brescia in?
Monza (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Brescia (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Monza's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Brescia's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, Brescia's attack versus Monza's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
41%
2.47
34%
2.91
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Monza xG
Total xG
2.01
0.86
Brescia xG
2.47
41%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
42%
2.35
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
17%
5.81
8%
12.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 11.5 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.2 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Monza and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Monza and 0.86 for Brescia, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Monza's recent record stands at 18W 9D 7L from 34 games, a 1.85 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Brescia, meanwhile, have gone 16W 13D 5L across 34 games — 1.79 PPG, with D-D-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Monza on 1.85 PPG, Brescia on 1.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Monza have managed 12W 3D 2L from 17 games — 2.29 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.85 PPG overall — Monza are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Brescia's away record stands at 9W 6D 2L across 17 trips, a 1.94 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Monza are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 1.47 scored and 0.94 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Monza have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Brescia in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Current Season
Brescia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monza and Brescia in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 18W 9D 7L in their last 34 games (1.85 PPG), while Brescia have gone 16W 13D 5L in their last 34 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or Brescia away?
Monza's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 2.29 PPG; Brescia away: 1.94 PPG.
Have Monza or Brescia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monza have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Brescia in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Monza have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Monza's record when hosting Brescia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Monza
1
Draws
0
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Brescia?
From 4 meetings on record, Monza have won 3, Brescia have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Monza and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2022, when Monza 2-1 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Monza and Brescia?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 47%, Brescia 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Monza) and 29% (Brescia).
On the defensive side: Monza keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Brescia in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monza play Brescia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Monza's recent matches and 47% of Brescia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Monza vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Monza's recent games and 29% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monza and Brescia tend to score early?
Monza have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Brescia in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Monza and Brescia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at U-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 35, as Monza and Brescia drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.15 xG and Brescia 0.86 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 1.25 / defence 0.94 against Brescia attack 0.84 / defence 0.87, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monza 41% | Draw 34% | Brescia 25%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 44%, Brescia 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Brescia's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Monza 1.85 PPG, Brescia 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Monza (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.