Modena 1-3 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 42% as Modena take on Venezia.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Modena and Venezia meet at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Serie B, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 September 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Modena's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Modena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Modena have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Alberto Braglia. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Venezia have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Venezia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Venezia's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Modena, 1 for Venezia and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2023, ended 0–5 with Venezia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Modena — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games).
Venezia — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 52% versus Venezia 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 43% | Venezia 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 0.87 xG and Venezia 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.971 / defence 0.691 | Venezia attack 0.848 / defence 0.844. League average goals — home 1.058 / away 1.133. Modena's defence rating of 0.691 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Modena games / 45 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 35% | Draw 42% | Venezia 23%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.86 | Draw 2.38 | Venezia 4.35. The draw (42%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.53. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.53 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Venezia's lower xG of 0.67 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 42% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 23% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.53 combined xG gives a 20% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 31%. Form rates corroborate: Modena 30% | Venezia 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Sep 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 35% | Draw 42% | Venezia 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% | BTTS 31% | xG Modena 0.87 / Venezia 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.971 / def 0.691 | Venezia attack 0.848 / def 0.844 | league avg home 1.058 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Draw (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Modena xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Venezia xG
31%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Venezia kick off?
Modena vs Venezia kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Venezia?
Modena 1 - 3 Venezia.
Where is Modena vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Venezia part of?
Modena vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 35% chance of winning, Venezia a 23% chance, and a 42% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Modena and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Venezia?
Record (2 meetings): Modena 0W | Draws 1 | Venezia 1W.
What form are Modena and Venezia in?
Modena (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Venezia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Modena's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Venezia's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.87. Flip it around — Venezia's attack (0.85x) against Modena's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 0.67.
These ratings are built from 44/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 23.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.1%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 54% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.89
42%
2.35
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.7%
Home win
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Modena xG
Total xG
1.53
0.67
Venezia xG
2.89
35%
Home win
2.35
42%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
45%
Over 1.5
2.22
55%
Under 1.5
1.82
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.19
69%
BTTS No
1.46
Clean Sheet
51%
1.94
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
18%
5.61
10%
10.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.6 | 14.4 | 4.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.7 | 12.5 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.2%.
How many goals are Modena and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Modena and 0.67 for Venezia, a combined total of 1.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Modena's recent record stands at 16W 12D 16L from 44 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Modena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Venezia, meanwhile, have gone 15W 13D 16L across 44 games — 1.32 PPG, with W-D-W-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Venezia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Modena against 1.32 for Venezia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Modena have managed 9W 9D 4L from 22 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Venezia's away record stands at 6W 7D 9L across 22 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Modena are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.30 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Early Season
Venezia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Venezia in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 16W 12D 16L in their last 44 games (1.36 PPG), while Venezia have gone 15W 13D 16L in their last 44 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Venezia away?
Modena's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.64 PPG; Venezia away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Modena or Venezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Venezia in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 10 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Venezia won 5-0 on 1 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Modena have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Venezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Modena
2
Draws
3
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Venezia?
From 6 meetings on record, Modena have won 1, Venezia have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2026, when Venezia 0-2 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Venezia?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Venezia see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 46%, Venezia 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 27% for Modena and 41% for Venezia.
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Modena have failed to score in 27% of games; Venezia in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Modena's recent matches and 54% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Modena vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Modena's recent games and 41% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Venezia tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Venezia in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Venezia cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Modena.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Modena 1-3 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 0.87 xG and Venezia 0.67 xG, a combined 1.53. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Venezia outscored their 0.67 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.97 / defence 0.69 against Venezia attack 0.85 / defence 0.84, drawn from 44/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 35% | Draw 42% | Venezia 23%, with the draw its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Venezia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 49% and landed. Over 3.5 was 7% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 43%, Venezia 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Venezia's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.36 PPG, Venezia 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock. Modena (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.