Modena 0-1 Ascoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Ascoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ascoli make the trip to Stadio Alberto Braglia to face Modena in Serie B, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Wednesday 1 March 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Modena (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Modena's home record at Stadio Alberto Braglia: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ascoli have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Ascoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ascoli have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Modena against 1.20 for Ascoli. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Modena lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with Modena winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Modena — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Ascoli — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 62% versus Ascoli 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 54% | Ascoli 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.40 xG and Ascoli 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 1.134 / defence 1.172 | Ascoli attack 0.976 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.196 / away 1.015. Data: 26 Modena games / 64 Ascoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 41% | Draw 29% | Ascoli 30%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Ascoli 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Modena are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Modena if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Modena 60% | Ascoli 40%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Mar 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 41% | Draw 29% | Ascoli 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Modena 1.40 / Ascoli 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 1.134 / def 1.172 | Ascoli attack 0.976 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.196 / away 1.015 • Poisson stance: Modena (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Ascoli xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Ascoli kick off?
Modena vs Ascoli kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 1 March 2023 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Ascoli?
Modena 0 - 1 Ascoli.
Where is Modena vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Ascoli part of?
Modena vs Ascoli is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 41% chance of winning, Ascoli a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Modena and Ascoli will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Ascoli?
Record (1 meetings): Modena 1W | Draws 0 | Ascoli 0W.
What form are Modena and Ascoli in?
Modena (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Ascoli (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Modena's attack rating (1.13) and Ascoli's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ascoli's attack (0.98x) against Modena's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 26/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
41%
2.42
29%
3.50
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Modena xG
Total xG
2.56
1.16
Ascoli xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
13%
7.74
7%
13.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.6 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Modena and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Modena and 1.16 for Ascoli, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Ascoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 26 outings, Modena have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 10W 5D 11L record — L-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ascoli's form line: 8W 9D 9L from 26 games, 1.27 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-D. The sample for Ascoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Modena against 1.27 for Ascoli. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Modena have posted 1.58 PPG from 12 outings (5W 4D 3L).
On the road, Ascoli have gone 4W 4D 4L from 12 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Modena are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.08 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Modena have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Blended
Ascoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 10W 5D 11L in their last 26 games (1.35 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 8W 9D 9L in their last 26 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Ascoli away?
Modena's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.58 PPG; Ascoli away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Modena have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ascoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Modena
1
Draws
1
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Ascoli?
From 4 meetings on record, Modena have won 2, Ascoli have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Ascoli last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Ascoli 0-0 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Ascoli?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 58%, Ascoli 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 42% for Modena and 25% for Ascoli.
On the defensive side: Ascoli in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Ascoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Modena's recent matches and 42% of Ascoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Modena vs Ascoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Modena's recent games and 25% of Ascoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Ascoli tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Ascoli in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ascoli defy the odds to beat Modena 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ascoli beat Modena 0-1 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.40 xG and Ascoli 1.16 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Modena fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 1.13 / defence 1.17 against Ascoli attack 0.98 / defence 1.03, drawn from 26/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 41% | Draw 29% | Ascoli 30%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Ascoli win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 54%, Ascoli 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Ascoli's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.35 PPG, Ascoli 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ascoli win broke the near-deadlock. Modena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward. Ascoli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.