Mantova 0-1 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mantova at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mantova vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Empoli make the trip to Stadio Danilo Martelli to face Mantova in Serie B, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Sunday 21 December 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mantova have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mantova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mantova have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stadio Danilo Martelli — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Empoli (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Mantova against 1.40 for Empoli. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Mantova goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Empoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 56% versus Empoli 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mantova 52% | Empoli 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.76 xG and Empoli 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 1.030 / defence 1.256 | Empoli attack 0.867 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.071. Empoli bring a strong defensive rating of 1.265 — this is suppressing Mantova's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Mantova games / 16 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mantova 50% | Draw 27% | Empoli 24%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Empoli 4.17. Mantova hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mantova at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mantova if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mantova 70% | Empoli 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Empoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Dec 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 50% | Draw 27% | Empoli 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Mantova 1.76 / Empoli 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 1.030 / def 1.256 | Empoli attack 0.867 / def 1.265 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Mantova (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Empoli xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mantova vs Empoli kick off?
Mantova vs Empoli kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 21 December 2025 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What was the final score in Mantova vs Empoli?
Mantova 0 - 1 Empoli.
Where is Mantova vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Empoli part of?
Mantova vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 50% chance of winning, Empoli a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Mantova and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Mantova vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Empoli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mantova and Empoli in?
Mantova (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Empoli (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Mantova's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Empoli's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. Flip it around — Empoli's attack (0.87x) against Mantova's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 54/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
50%
2.01
27%
3.77
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Mantova xG
Total xG
2.93
1.17
Empoli xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
15%
6.45
4%
24.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.0 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Mantova and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Mantova and 1.17 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mantova come into this having played 54 games, going 14W 16D 24L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-L. The sample for Mantova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 0.94 PPG from 54 outings (11W 18D 25L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Mantova against 0.94 for Empoli. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Mantova's home form reads 10W 8D 8L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 0.92 points per game from 26 outings (6W 6D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mantova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mantova are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.04 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mantova and Empoli in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 14W 16D 24L in their last 54 games (1.07 PPG), while Empoli have gone 11W 18D 25L in their last 54 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Empoli away?
Mantova's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 1.46 PPG; Empoli away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mantova have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Empoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Mantova
1
Draws
1
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Empoli?
From 3 meetings on record, Mantova have won 1, Empoli have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mantova and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Mantova 3-1 Empoli.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mantova see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mantova 50%, Empoli 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Mantova) and 62% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Mantova keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Mantova have failed to score in 27% of games; Empoli in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mantova play Empoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Mantova's games and 65% of Empoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mantova vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Mantova's recent games and 62% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mantova and Empoli tend to score early?
Mantova have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Empoli in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Empoli defy the odds to beat Mantova 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli beat Mantova 0-1 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.76 xG and Empoli 1.17 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Mantova fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 1.03 / defence 1.26 against Empoli attack 0.87 / defence 1.26, drawn from 54/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mantova 50% | Draw 27% | Empoli 24%, with Mantova to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Empoli win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 52%, Empoli 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mantova's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Empoli's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mantova 1.07 PPG, Empoli 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Empoli win broke the near-deadlock. Mantova (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward. Empoli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.