Mantova 0-2 Avellino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mantova at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mantova vs Avellino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mantova host Avellino at Stadio Danilo Martelli in Serie B, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 April 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Mantova — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Mantova's home record at Stadio Danilo Martelli: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Avellino stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Avellino have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Mantova are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Mantova have won 0, Avellino 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Mantova in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Avellino in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 53% versus Avellino 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mantova 50% | Avellino 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.74 xG and Avellino 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 1.036 / defence 1.060 | Avellino attack 0.755 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.093. Avellino bring a strong defensive rating of 1.217 — this is suppressing Mantova's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 72 Mantova games / 34 Avellino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mantova 56% | Draw 27% | Avellino 17%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 1.79 | Draw 3.70 | Avellino 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Mantova (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mantova as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Mantova 50% | Avellino 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Avellino | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 56% | Draw 27% | Avellino 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 50% | xG Mantova 1.74 / Avellino 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 1.036 / def 1.060 | Avellino attack 0.755 / def 1.217 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Mantova (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Avellino xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mantova vs Avellino kick off?
Mantova vs Avellino kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What was the final score in Mantova vs Avellino?
Mantova 0 - 2 Avellino.
Where is Mantova vs Avellino being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Avellino part of?
Mantova vs Avellino is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Avellino?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 56% chance of winning, Avellino a 17% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Avellino?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Mantova and Avellino will score (BTTS).
Will Mantova vs Avellino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Avellino?
Record (1 meetings): Mantova 0W | Draws 1 | Avellino 0W.
What form are Mantova and Avellino in?
Mantova (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Avellino (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mantova's attack rating (1.04) and Avellino's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Avellino's attack versus Mantova's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
56%
1.78
27%
3.70
17%
5.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Mantova xG
Total xG
2.62
0.88
Avellino xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
5.91
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
23%
4.29
3%
33.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 11.1 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Avellino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Mantova and Avellino expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Mantova and 0.88 for Avellino, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Avellino?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mantova's recent record stands at 11W 7D 16L from 34 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Avellino, meanwhile, have gone 10W 10D 14L across 34 games — 1.18 PPG, with W-W-L-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mantova on 1.18 PPG, Avellino on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Mantova have managed 8W 3D 6L from 17 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Mantova are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Avellino's away record stands at 3W 5D 9L across 17 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mantova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mantova are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Avellino are on 1.12 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Current Season
Avellino
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mantova and Avellino in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 11W 7D 16L in their last 34 games (1.18 PPG), while Avellino have gone 10W 10D 14L in their last 34 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Avellino away?
Mantova's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 1.59 PPG; Avellino away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Mantova
1
Draws
1
Avellino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Avellino?
From 2 meetings on record, Mantova have won 0, Avellino have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mantova and Avellino last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Mantova 0-2 Avellino.
Who has won more matches between Mantova and Avellino?
Avellino have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Avellino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mantova 65%, Avellino 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Mantova) and 41% (Avellino).
On the defensive side: Avellino in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Avellino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mantova play Avellino?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Mantova's games and 53% of Avellino's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mantova vs Avellino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Mantova's recent games and 41% of Avellino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mantova and Avellino tend to score early?
Mantova have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Avellino in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Avellino cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Mantova.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Avellino beat Mantova 0-2 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.74 xG and Avellino 0.88 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Mantova fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Avellino outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 1.04 / defence 1.06 against Avellino attack 0.76 / defence 1.22, drawn from 72/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mantova 56% | Draw 27% | Avellino 17%, with Mantova to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Avellino win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 50%, Avellino 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mantova's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Avellino's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mantova 1.18 PPG, Avellino 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Avellino win broke the near-deadlock. Mantova (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward. Avellino (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.