Juve Stabia 0-0 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juve Stabia vs Reggiana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 3 as Juve Stabia welcome Reggiana to Stadio Romeo Menti. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 September 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Juve Stabia have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Juve Stabia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Juve Stabia have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stadio Romeo Menti — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Romeo Menti. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Juve Stabia are significantly better at Stadio Romeo Menti than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Reggiana stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Reggiana have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Reggiana away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Juve Stabia at 1.30 PPG versus Reggiana's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Juve Stabia have won 0, Reggiana 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2025, ended 1–2 with Reggiana winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Juve Stabia trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Reggiana trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 52% versus Reggiana 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 48% | Reggiana 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.25 xG and Reggiana 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.883 / defence 0.851 | Reggiana attack 1.046 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 1.219 / away 1.051. Data: 40 Juve Stabia games / 40 Reggiana games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 40% | Draw 37% | Reggiana 24%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 2.50 | Draw 2.70 | Reggiana 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Juve Stabia at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Juve Stabia 30% | Reggiana 80%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Sep 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 40% | Draw 37% | Reggiana 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 47% | xG Juve Stabia 1.25 / Reggiana 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 0.883 / def 0.851 | Reggiana attack 1.046 / def 1.159 | league avg home 1.219 / away 1.051 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Reggiana xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Reggiana kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Reggiana kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 September 2025 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Juve Stabia vs Reggiana?
Juve Stabia 0 - 0 Reggiana.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Reggiana part of?
Juve Stabia vs Reggiana is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 40% chance of winning, Reggiana a 24% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Juve Stabia and Reggiana will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Reggiana?
Record (2 meetings): Juve Stabia 0W | Draws 0 | Reggiana 2W.
What form are Juve Stabia and Reggiana in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Reggiana (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Juve Stabia's attack rating (0.88) and Reggiana's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Reggiana's attack versus Juve Stabia's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
40%
2.53
37%
2.73
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.18
0.94
Reggiana xG
2.53
40%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
15%
6.46
7%
14.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 10.5 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.2 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 0.94 for Reggiana, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Reggiana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Juve Stabia's recent record stands at 14W 14D 12L from 40 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Juve Stabia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Reggiana, meanwhile, have gone 12W 11D 17L across 40 games — 1.18 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Reggiana, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juve Stabia on 1.40 PPG, Reggiana on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Juve Stabia have managed 11W 5D 4L from 20 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Juve Stabia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Reggiana's away record stands at 5W 5D 10L across 20 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juve Stabia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 1.15 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Early Season
Reggiana
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 14W 14D 12L in their last 40 games (1.40 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 12W 11D 17L in their last 40 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Reggiana away?
Juve Stabia's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.90 PPG; Reggiana away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Juve Stabia or Reggiana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Reggiana in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Juve Stabia and Reggiana runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Juve Stabia's record when hosting Reggiana specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Juve Stabia
2
Draws
2
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Reggiana?
From 4 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 0, Reggiana have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Reggiana last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Reggiana 1-1 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Juve Stabia and Reggiana?
Reggiana have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 45%, Reggiana 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Juve Stabia) and 45% (Reggiana).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Reggiana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 60% of Reggiana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juve Stabia vs Reggiana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 45% of Reggiana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Reggiana tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Reggiana in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Juve Stabia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 3, as Juve Stabia and Reggiana drew 0-0 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.25 xG and Reggiana 0.94 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Juve Stabia fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Reggiana landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 0.88 / defence 0.85 against Reggiana attack 1.05 / defence 1.16, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 40% | Draw 37% | Reggiana 24%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 48%, Reggiana 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juve Stabia's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Reggiana's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juve Stabia 1.40 PPG, Reggiana 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Reggiana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.