Juve Stabia 0-1 Cittadella – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Juve Stabia face Cittadella.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Juve Stabia host Cittadella at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti in Serie B (matchday 28). Kick-off is Saturday 1 March 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Juve Stabia stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Juve Stabia at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Cittadella have recorded 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Cittadella have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Juve Stabia at 1.40 PPG versus Cittadella's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Juve Stabia have won 0, Cittadella 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 30 Nov 2024, ended Juve Stabia 2–2 Cittadella — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Juve Stabia in-play tendencies (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Cittadella in-play tendencies (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 56% versus Cittadella 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 56% | Cittadella 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.42 xG and Cittadella 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 1.154 / defence 1.018 | Cittadella attack 0.806 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.209 / away 1.101. Data: built from Juve Stabia's last 27 games and Cittadella's last 65.
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 47% | Draw 31% | Cittadella 22%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 2.13 | Draw 3.22 | Cittadella 4.55. Juve Stabia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Juve Stabia are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Juve Stabia 60% (last 10 home games) | Cittadella 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Cittadella | Competition: Serie B, matchday 28 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 1 March 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 47% | Draw 31% | Cittadella 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Juve Stabia 1.42 / Cittadella 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 1.154 / def 1.018 | Cittadella attack 0.806 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.209 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Cittadella xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Juve Stabia vs Cittadella FAQs
What time does Juve Stabia vs Cittadella kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Cittadella kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Juve Stabia vs Cittadella?
Juve Stabia 0 - 1 Cittadella.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Cittadella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Cittadella part of?
Juve Stabia vs Cittadella is a Serie B fixture (matchday 28) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Cittadella?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 47% chance of winning, Cittadella a 22% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Cittadella?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Juve Stabia and Cittadella will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Juve Stabia vs Cittadella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Juve Stabia's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Cittadella's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, Cittadella's attack versus Juve Stabia's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Juve Stabia's last 27 games and Cittadella's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
47%
2.13
31%
3.22
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.32
0.90
Cittadella xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
19%
5.26
5%
18.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.6 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Juve Stabia vs Cittadella Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Cittadella?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Cittadella expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 0.90 for Cittadella, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Cittadella?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 27 outings, Juve Stabia have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 10W 9D 8L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Cittadella's form line: 8W 7D 12L from 27 games, 1.15 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juve Stabia on 1.44 PPG, Cittadella on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Juve Stabia have posted 1.85 PPG from their last 13 home games (7W 3D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Juve Stabia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cittadella have gone 6W 1D 6L from their last 13 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Cittadella are on 0.78 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: Cittadella in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Blended
Cittadella
Blended
Juve Stabia (Home) vs Cittadella (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Juve Stabia
Blended
Cittadella
Blended
❓ Juve Stabia vs Cittadella Form FAQs
What form are Juve Stabia and Cittadella in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 10W 9D 8L in their last 27 games (1.44 PPG), while Cittadella have gone 8W 7D 12L in their last 27 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Cittadella away?
Juve Stabia's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.85 PPG; Cittadella away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Juve Stabia or Cittadella been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Cittadella in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2024. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 1 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Juve Stabia
1
Draws
1
Cittadella
Recent Meetings
❓ Juve Stabia vs Cittadella H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Cittadella?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Juve Stabia have won 0, Cittadella have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Cittadella last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 March 2025: Juve Stabia 0-1 Cittadella.
Who has won more matches between Juve Stabia and Cittadella?
Cittadella have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Cittadella see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 54%, Cittadella 23% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Juve Stabia) and 38% (Cittadella).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Cittadella in 46%; Cittadella in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Cittadella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Juve Stabia vs Cittadella Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Juve Stabia and Cittadella matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 23% of Cittadella's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Juve Stabia and Cittadella matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 38% of Cittadella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Cittadella matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 92% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 54% of Cittadella's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cittadella defy the odds to beat Juve Stabia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cittadella beat Juve Stabia 0-1 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.42 xG and Cittadella 0.90 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Juve Stabia fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 1.15 / defence 1.02 against Cittadella attack 0.81 / defence 1.02, drawn from 27/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 47% | Draw 31% | Cittadella 22%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Cittadella win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 56%, Cittadella 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juve Stabia's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cittadella's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juve Stabia 1.44 PPG, Cittadella 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cittadella win broke the near-deadlock. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward. Cittadella (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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