Genoa 0-0 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Genoa take on Pisa.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pisa make the trip to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to face Genoa in Serie B, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 January 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Form
Genoa (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Pisa's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Pisa have gone 2W 7D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Genoa, 1.90 for Pisa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Genoa 1W, Pisa 0W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2022, ended 1–0 with Genoa winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Genoa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Pisa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 42% versus Pisa 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Genoa 39% | Pisa 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 0.89 xG and Pisa 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.829 / defence 0.815 | Pisa attack 1.039 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.148 / away 1.048. Data: 21 Genoa games / 59 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 33% | Draw 34% | Pisa 33%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 3.03 | Draw 2.94 | Pisa 3.03. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Pisa's lower xG of 0.89 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.78 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 30% | Pisa 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jan 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 33% | Draw 34% | Pisa 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 35% | xG Genoa 0.89 / Pisa 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.829 / def 0.815 | Pisa attack 1.039 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.148 / away 1.048 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Pisa xG
35%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Pisa kick off?
Genoa vs Pisa kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 28 January 2023 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Pisa?
Genoa 0 - 0 Pisa.
Where is Genoa vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Pisa part of?
Genoa vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 33% chance of winning, Pisa a 33% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Genoa and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Pisa?
Record (1 meetings): Genoa 1W | Draws 0 | Pisa 0W.
What form are Genoa and Pisa in?
Genoa (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Pisa (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Genoa's attack rating (0.83) and Pisa's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pisa's attack (1.04x) against Genoa's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 21/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.03
34%
2.93
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Genoa xG
Total xG
1.78
0.89
Pisa xG
3.03
33%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.85
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
14%
7.35
14%
7.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.9 | 15.0 | 6.7 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.7%.
How many goals are Genoa and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Genoa and 0.89 for Pisa, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Genoa come into this having played 59 games, going 15W 22D 22L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pisa sit at 1.49 PPG from 59 outings (22W 22D 15L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Genoa against 1.49 for Pisa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Genoa's home form reads 7W 13D 9L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Pisa have taken 1.21 points per game from 29 outings (8W 11D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Genoa are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.29 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Pisa in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Pisa in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 15W 22D 22L in their last 59 games (1.14 PPG), while Pisa have gone 22W 22D 15L in their last 59 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Pisa away?
Pisa's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.17 PPG; Pisa away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Genoa or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Pisa in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Pisa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Genoa
2
Draws
0
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Pisa?
From 4 meetings on record, Genoa have won 2, Pisa have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Pisa 1-2 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Pisa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Genoa see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 38%, Pisa 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Genoa and 34% for Pisa.
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Pisa in 31%; Genoa have failed to score in 41% of games; Pisa in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Genoa's recent matches and 52% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Genoa's recent games and 34% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Pisa tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Pisa in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Genoa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 22, as Genoa and Pisa drew 0-0 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 0.89 xG and Pisa 0.89 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Genoa fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Pisa landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.83 / defence 0.81 against Pisa attack 1.04 / defence 0.93, drawn from 21/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 33% | Draw 34% | Pisa 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 53% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 39%, Pisa 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pisa's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genoa 1.14 PPG, Pisa 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.