Frosinone 3-0 Juve Stabia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Frosinone at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Frosinone vs Juve Stabia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 15 as Frosinone welcome Juve Stabia to Stadio Benito Stirpe. Kick-off is set for Monday 8 December 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Frosinone — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Frosinone's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Benito Stirpe this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Juve Stabia stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juve Stabia's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Frosinone carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Frosinone, 0 for Juve Stabia and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 29 Dec 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Frosinone in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Juve Stabia in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 52% versus Juve Stabia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 44% | Juve Stabia 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 2.15 xG and Juve Stabia 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 1.279 / defence 1.037 | Juve Stabia attack 0.913 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.085. Frosinone carry an above-average attack strength of 1.279 — their λ of 2.15 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Juve Stabia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing Frosinone's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Frosinone games / 52 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Frosinone 62% | Draw 22% | Juve Stabia 16%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Juve Stabia 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Frosinone (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Frosinone at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Frosinone 70% | Juve Stabia 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Monday 8 Dec 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 62% | Draw 22% | Juve Stabia 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 58% | xG Frosinone 2.15 / Juve Stabia 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 1.279 / def 1.037 | Juve Stabia attack 0.913 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Juve Stabia xG
58%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Frosinone vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Frosinone vs Juve Stabia kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 8 December 2025 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Juve Stabia?
Frosinone 3 - 0 Juve Stabia.
Where is Frosinone vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Juve Stabia part of?
Frosinone vs Juve Stabia is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 62% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Frosinone and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Frosinone vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Juve Stabia?
Record (2 meetings): Frosinone 0W | Draws 2 | Juve Stabia 0W.
What form are Frosinone and Juve Stabia in?
Frosinone (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Juve Stabia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Frosinone's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Juve Stabia's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.15. The same calculation in reverse, Juve Stabia's attack versus Frosinone's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
62%
1.61
22%
4.58
16%
6.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Frosinone xG
Total xG
3.18
1.03
Juve Stabia xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
6.21
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
12%
8.59
Win to Nil
22%
4.50
2%
53.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Frosinone and 1.03 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Juve Stabia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Frosinone's recent record stands at 17W 20D 15L from 52 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Juve Stabia, meanwhile, have gone 18W 19D 15L across 52 games — 1.40 PPG, with L-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Juve Stabia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Frosinone on 1.37 PPG, Juve Stabia on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Frosinone have managed 7W 12D 6L from 25 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Juve Stabia's away record stands at 4W 11D 10L across 25 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Juve Stabia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Frosinone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Frosinone are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 1.08 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Blended
Juve Stabia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Frosinone and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 17W 20D 15L in their last 52 games (1.37 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 18W 19D 15L in their last 52 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Juve Stabia away?
Frosinone's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 1.32 PPG; Juve Stabia away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Frosinone or Juve Stabia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Juve Stabia in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Frosinone have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Dec 2025, when Frosinone won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Frosinone's record when hosting Juve Stabia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Frosinone
2
Draws
0
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Juve Stabia?
From 4 meetings on record, Frosinone have won 2, Juve Stabia have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Juve Stabia last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Juve Stabia 0-1 Frosinone.
Who has won more matches between Frosinone and Juve Stabia?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 60%, Juve Stabia 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Frosinone) and 52% (Juve Stabia).
On the defensive side: Frosinone have failed to score in 28% of games; Juve Stabia in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Frosinone play Juve Stabia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Frosinone's games and 56% of Juve Stabia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Frosinone vs Juve Stabia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Frosinone's recent games and 52% of Juve Stabia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Frosinone and Juve Stabia tend to score early?
Frosinone have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Juve Stabia in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Frosinone run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Juve Stabia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Juve Stabia 3-0 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 2.15 xG and Juve Stabia 1.03 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Frosinone beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Juve Stabia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.28 / defence 1.04 against Juve Stabia attack 0.91 / defence 1.23, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 62% | Draw 22% | Juve Stabia 16%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 44%, Juve Stabia 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Juve Stabia's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Frosinone 1.37 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Frosinone (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.