Frosinone 1-0 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Frosinone at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Frosinone vs Bari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bari make the trip to Stadio Benito Stirpe to face Frosinone in Serie B, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Frosinone have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Frosinone's home record at Stadio Benito Stirpe: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Serie B appearances (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Benito Stirpe. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Frosinone are significantly better at Stadio Benito Stirpe than their overall form suggests.
Bari (all games): 5W 3D 1L across 9 Serie B outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bari have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 away fixtures this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.60 exceeds their overall 2.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Frosinone against 2.00 for Bari. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Frosinone goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
Bari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 33% versus Bari 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 44% | Bari 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.34 xG and Bari 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 1.124 / defence 0.650 | Bari attack 1.064 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 1.124. Frosinone's defence rating of 0.650 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Frosinone games / 9 Bari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Frosinone 50% | Draw 28% | Bari 22%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Bari 4.55. Frosinone hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Frosinone at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Frosinone if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Frosinone 30% | Bari 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 50% | Draw 28% | Bari 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 40% | xG Frosinone 1.34 / Bari 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 1.124 / def 0.650 | Bari attack 1.064 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.295 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Bari xG
40%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Frosinone vs Bari kick off?
Frosinone vs Bari kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Bari?
Frosinone 1 - 0 Bari.
Where is Frosinone vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Bari part of?
Frosinone vs Bari is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 50% chance of winning, Bari a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Frosinone and Bari will score (BTTS).
Will Frosinone vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Bari?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Frosinone and Bari in?
Frosinone (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Bari (all comps): 5W-3D-1L in 9 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.22 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Frosinone's attack rating (1.12) and Bari's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bari's attack (1.06x) against Frosinone's defence (0.65x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 47/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.2%), 0-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
50%
1.99
28%
3.55
22%
4.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Frosinone xG
Total xG
2.12
0.78
Bari xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
4.62
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
23%
4.33
6%
17.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 12.5 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Frosinone and 0.78 for Bari, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Frosinone's recent record stands at 6W 0D 3L from 9 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bari, meanwhile, have gone 5W 3D 1L across 9 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for Frosinone against 2.00 for Bari. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Frosinone have managed 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Frosinone are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Bari's away record stands at 4W 0D 0L across 4 trips, a 3.00 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 2.00 PPG overall record — Bari travel well.
Attack vs Defence
Frosinone are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 2.00 scored and 1.22 conceded. Bari's attacking output running into Frosinone's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Bari in 67%.
Defensively: Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Blended
Bari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Frosinone and Bari in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 6W 0D 3L in their last 9 games (2.00 PPG), while Bari have gone 5W 3D 1L in their last 9 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Bari away?
Frosinone's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 3.00 PPG; Bari away: 3.00 PPG.
Have Frosinone or Bari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their recent games, Bari in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 18 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Frosinone have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bari won 0-3 on 22 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Frosinone have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Bari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Frosinone
1
Draws
2
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Bari?
From 6 meetings on record, Frosinone have won 3, Bari have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Bari last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2026, when Frosinone 2-1 Bari.
Who has won more matches between Frosinone and Bari?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Bari see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Frosinone) and 50% (Bari) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Frosinone) and 50% (Bari).
On the defensive side: Frosinone keep a clean sheet in 100% of their matches; Bari in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Frosinone play Bari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Frosinone's recent matches and 50% of Bari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Frosinone vs Bari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Frosinone's recent games and 50% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Frosinone and Bari tend to score early?
Frosinone have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Bari in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Frosinone edge out Bari 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Bari 1-0 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.34 xG and Bari 0.78 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.12 / defence 0.65 against Bari attack 1.06 / defence 0.92, drawn from 47/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 50% | Draw 28% | Bari 22%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 44%, Bari 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bari's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Frosinone 2.00 PPG, Bari 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Frosinone (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.