Feralpisalo 1-2 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Feralpisalo at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Feralpisalo vs Palermo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Palermo make the trip to Stadio Leonardo Garilli to face Feralpisalo in Serie B, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 February 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Feralpisalo (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Feralpisalo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Leonardo Garilli, Feralpisalo have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Palermo have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palermo away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Feralpisalo against 1.60 for Palermo. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Feralpisalo lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 0–3 with Palermo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Feralpisalo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Palermo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feralpisalo 52% versus Palermo 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feralpisalo 56% | Palermo 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feralpisalo 1.60 xG and Palermo 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feralpisalo attack 1.153 / defence 1.148 | Palermo attack 1.086 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.192. Data: 23 Feralpisalo games / 61 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feralpisalo 40% | Draw 25% | Palermo 35%. Fair-value odds: Feralpisalo 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | Palermo 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Feralpisalo are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Feralpisalo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Feralpisalo 50% | Palermo 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feralpisalo vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Leonardo Garilli • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feralpisalo 40% | Draw 25% | Palermo 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Feralpisalo 1.60 / Palermo 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Feralpisalo attack 1.153 / def 1.148 | Palermo attack 1.086 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.336 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Feralpisalo (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Feralpisalo xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Palermo xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feralpisalo vs Palermo kick off?
Feralpisalo vs Palermo kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Stadio Leonardo Garilli.
What was the final score in Feralpisalo vs Palermo?
Feralpisalo 1 - 2 Palermo.
Where is Feralpisalo vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Leonardo Garilli.
What competition is Feralpisalo vs Palermo part of?
Feralpisalo vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Feralpisalo vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Feralpisalo a 40% chance of winning, Palermo a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Feralpisalo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feralpisalo vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Feralpisalo and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Feralpisalo vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feralpisalo and Palermo?
Record (1 meetings): Feralpisalo 0W | Draws 0 | Palermo 1W.
What form are Feralpisalo and Palermo in?
Feralpisalo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Palermo (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Feralpisalo's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Palermo's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. Flip it around — Palermo's attack (1.09x) against Feralpisalo's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 23/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feralpisalo Win
40%
2.50
25%
4.04
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Feralpisalo xG
Total xG
3.08
1.49
Palermo xG
2.50
40%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
23%
4.42
20%
4.94
Win to Nil
9%
11.04
7%
14.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.9 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feralpisalo vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Feralpisalo and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Feralpisalo and 1.49 for Palermo, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Feralpisalo vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 23 outings, Feralpisalo have picked up 0.91 PPG on a 5W 6D 12L record — D-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Feralpisalo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palermo's form line: 11W 6D 6L from 23 games, 1.70 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Palermo are the form team by 0.79 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Feralpisalo.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Feralpisalo have posted 1.09 PPG from 11 outings (3W 3D 5L).
On the road, Palermo have gone 4W 5D 2L from 11 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Feralpisalo are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.74 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feralpisalo
Blended
Palermo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feralpisalo and Palermo in coming into this match?
Feralpisalo have gone 5W 6D 12L in their last 23 games (0.91 PPG), while Palermo have gone 11W 6D 6L in their last 23 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feralpisalo at home or Palermo away?
Palermo's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feralpisalo at home: 1.09 PPG; Palermo away: 1.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Feralpisalo
0
Draws
2
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feralpisalo and Palermo?
From 2 meetings on record, Feralpisalo have won 0, Palermo have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Feralpisalo and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2024, when Feralpisalo 1-2 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Feralpisalo and Palermo?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Feralpisalo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feralpisalo 46%, Palermo 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Feralpisalo) and 36% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Feralpisalo have failed to score in 36% of games; Palermo in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feralpisalo home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feralpisalo play Palermo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Feralpisalo's recent matches and 54% of Palermo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Feralpisalo vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Feralpisalo's recent games and 36% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Feralpisalo and Palermo tend to score early?
Feralpisalo have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Palermo in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Palermo defy the odds to beat Feralpisalo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Feralpisalo 1-2 at Stadio Leonardo Garilli, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feralpisalo 1.60 xG and Palermo 1.49 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feralpisalo attack 1.15 / defence 1.15 against Palermo attack 1.09 / defence 1.04, drawn from 23/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feralpisalo 40% | Draw 25% | Palermo 35%, with Feralpisalo to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Palermo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feralpisalo 56%, Palermo 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feralpisalo's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Palermo's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Palermo arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.91. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.