Crotone 3-3 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Crotone at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crotone vs Cosenza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Crotone and Cosenza meet at Stadio Ezio Scida in Serie B, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 23 February 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Crotone's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Crotone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Crotone have posted 2W 3D 5L at Stadio Ezio Scida — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Cosenza (all games): 0W 4D 6L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cosenza's form when playing away from home: 0W 5D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Crotone against 0.40 for Cosenza. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Crotone, 1 for Cosenza and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with Cosenza winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Crotone goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Cosenza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crotone 54% versus Cosenza 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crotone 46% | Cosenza 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crotone 1.16 xG and Cosenza 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crotone attack 0.847 / defence 1.165 | Cosenza attack 0.646 / defence 1.416. League average goals — home 0.967 / away 1.175. Cosenza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.416 — this is suppressing Crotone's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Crotone games / 24 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crotone 39% | Draw 37% | Cosenza 24%. Fair-value odds: Crotone 2.56 | Draw 2.70 | Cosenza 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Crotone as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crotone if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. This conflicts with form data: Crotone 50% | Cosenza 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crotone vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Ezio Scida • Kick-off: Wednesday 23 Feb 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crotone 39% | Draw 37% | Cosenza 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 44% | xG Crotone 1.16 / Cosenza 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Crotone attack 0.847 / def 1.165 | Cosenza attack 0.646 / def 1.416 | league avg home 0.967 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Crotone (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Crotone xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Cosenza xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crotone vs Cosenza kick off?
Crotone vs Cosenza kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 23 February 2022 at Stadio Ezio Scida.
What was the final score in Crotone vs Cosenza?
Crotone 3 - 3 Cosenza.
Where is Crotone vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ezio Scida.
What competition is Crotone vs Cosenza part of?
Crotone vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Crotone vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Crotone a 39% chance of winning, Cosenza a 24% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Crotone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crotone vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Crotone and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Crotone vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crotone and Cosenza?
Record (1 meetings): Crotone 0W | Draws 0 | Cosenza 1W.
What form are Crotone and Cosenza in?
Crotone (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Cosenza (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Crotone's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Cosenza's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — Cosenza's attack (0.65x) against Crotone's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crotone Win
39%
2.59
37%
2.70
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Crotone xG
Total xG
2.04
0.88
Cosenza xG
2.59
39%
Home win
2.70
37%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
16%
6.27
8%
13.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 11.5 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crotone vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Crotone and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Crotone and 0.88 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Crotone vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 24 outings, Crotone have picked up 0.58 PPG on a 2W 8D 14L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Crotone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cosenza's form line: 4W 7D 13L from 24 games, 0.79 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-L. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.58 PPG for Crotone against 0.79 for Cosenza. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Crotone have posted 0.92 PPG from 12 outings (2W 5D 5L).
On the road, Cosenza have gone 0W 5D 7L from 12 away games — 0.42 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crotone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Crotone are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 0.79 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crotone
Blended
Cosenza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crotone and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Crotone have gone 2W 8D 14L in their last 24 games (0.58 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 4W 7D 13L in their last 24 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crotone at home or Cosenza away?
Crotone's home record (0.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crotone at home: 0.92 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Crotone
1
Draws
1
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crotone and Cosenza?
From 2 meetings on record, Crotone have won 0, Cosenza have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Crotone and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2022, when Crotone 3-3 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Crotone and Cosenza?
Cosenza have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Crotone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crotone 58%, Cosenza 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Crotone) and 42% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Crotone have failed to score in 42% of games; Cosenza in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crotone home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crotone play Cosenza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Crotone's games and 67% of Cosenza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crotone vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Crotone's recent games and 42% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crotone and Cosenza tend to score early?
Crotone have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Crotone and Cosenza share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Ezio Scida, Regular Season - 25, as Crotone and Cosenza drew 3-3 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crotone 1.16 xG and Cosenza 0.88 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Crotone beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cosenza outscored their 0.88 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crotone attack 0.85 / defence 1.17 against Cosenza attack 0.65 / defence 1.42, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crotone 39% | Draw 37% | Cosenza 24%, with Crotone to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crotone 46%, Cosenza 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crotone's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Cosenza's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crotone 0.58 PPG, Cosenza 0.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Crotone (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cosenza (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.