Cremonese 1-0 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Venezia at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cremonese face Venezia.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cremonese host Venezia at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie B (matchday 16). Kick-off is Saturday 9 December 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Cremonese stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Cremonese at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 2.00 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Venezia — last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Venezia's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cremonese at 2.00 PPG versus Venezia's 2.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Cremonese in-play tendencies (last 53 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Venezia in-play tendencies (last 53 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 53% versus Venezia 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 49% | Venezia 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 0.71 xG and Venezia 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.878 / defence 0.953 | Venezia attack 1.083 / defence 0.741. League average goals — home 1.092 / away 1.152. Venezia bring a tight defence (rating 0.741, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Cremonese's projected output down. Data: built from Cremonese's last 15 games and Venezia's last 53.
Result probabilities: Cremonese 21% | Draw 33% | Venezia 46%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 4.86 | Draw 2.99 | Venezia 2.17. Venezia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Venezia as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Venezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.90 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Cremonese's last 10 home games and Venezia's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cremonese 40% (last 10 home games) | Venezia 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, matchday 16 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 9 December 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 21% | Draw 33% | Venezia 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% (Under 70%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG Cremonese 0.71 / Venezia 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.878 / def 0.953 | Venezia attack 1.083 / def 0.741 | league avg home 1.092 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Venezia (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Venezia xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cremonese vs Venezia FAQs
What time does Cremonese vs Venezia kick off?
Cremonese vs Venezia kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 9 December 2023 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Venezia?
Cremonese 1 - 0 Venezia.
Where is Cremonese vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Venezia part of?
Cremonese vs Venezia is a Serie B fixture (matchday 16) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 21% chance of winning, Venezia a 46% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Cremonese and Venezia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will Cremonese vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (70%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cremonese's attack rating (0.88) and Venezia's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 0.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Venezia's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cremonese's last 15 games and Venezia's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.2%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
21%
4.86
33%
2.99
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Cremonese xG
Total xG
1.90
1.19
Venezia xG
4.86
21%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
6%
15.96
23%
4.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 17.8 | 10.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.6 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cremonese vs Venezia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.19 for Venezia, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cremonese come into this having played 53 games, going 12W 17D 24L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, Venezia sit at 1.55 PPG from 53 outings (23W 13D 17L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Venezia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Cremonese — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cremonese's home form reads 6W 7D 14L across their last 27 home games, a 0.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Venezia have taken 1.37 points per game from their last 27 away games (10W 7D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cremonese are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.43 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia in 60%.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Venezia
Blended
Cremonese (Home) vs Venezia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cremonese
Blended
Venezia
Blended
❓ Cremonese vs Venezia Form FAQs
What form are Cremonese and Venezia in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 12W 17D 24L in their last 53 games (1.00 PPG), while Venezia have gone 23W 13D 17L in their last 53 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Venezia away?
Venezia's away record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 0.93 PPG; Venezia away: 1.37 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 2 June 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cremonese's record when hosting Venezia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cremonese
1
Draws
2
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Cremonese vs Venezia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Venezia?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Cremonese have won 1, Venezia have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Venezia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 June 2024: Venezia 1-0 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Venezia?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Venezia see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 41%, Venezia 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Cremonese) and 44% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cremonese have failed to score in 41% of games; Venezia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cremonese vs Venezia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cremonese and Venezia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Cremonese's recent matches and 52% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cremonese and Venezia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Cremonese's recent games and 44% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Venezia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Cremonese's recent matches and 52% of Venezia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cremonese defy the odds to beat Venezia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Venezia 1-0 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 0.71 xG and Venezia 1.19 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Venezia landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.88 / defence 0.95 against Venezia attack 1.08 / defence 0.74, drawn from 15/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 21% | Draw 33% | Venezia 46%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Cremonese win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 49%, Venezia 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Venezia's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Cremonese winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cremonese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. Venezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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