Cremonese vs Pisa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Cremonese at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs Pisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Pisa travel to Stadio Giovanni Zini to take on Cremonese. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 January 2027, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cremonese stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Cremonese haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cremonese have posted 1W 3D 6L at Stadio Giovanni Zini — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Pisa — All Games: 1W 0D 9L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Pisa haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Pisa's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Cremonese are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Cremonese, 4 for Pisa and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 3–0 with Cremonese winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Cremonese trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Pisa trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 55% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 42% versus Pisa 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 45% | Pisa 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.51 xG and Pisa 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Pisa attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.071. Data: 0 Cremonese games / 0 Pisa games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Cremonese 47% | Draw 28% | Pisa 25%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Pisa 4.00. Cremonese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Pisa lead the H2H ledger, but Cremonese carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Cremonese 40% | Pisa 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 47% | Draw 28% | Pisa 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Cremonese 1.51 / Pisa 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Pisa attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Pisa xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Pisa kick off?
Cremonese vs Pisa is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 30 January 2027 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
Where is Cremonese vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Pisa part of?
Cremonese vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 47% chance of winning, Pisa a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Cremonese and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Pisa?
Record (8 meetings): Cremonese 2W | Draws 2 | Pisa 4W.
What form are Cremonese and Pisa in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Cremonese (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Cremonese vs Pisa?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cremonese's attack at 0.85x the league average against Pisa's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
47%
2.15
28%
3.52
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.56
1.05
Pisa xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
16%
6.11
6%
18.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.3 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.05 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cremonese's recent record stands at 8W 10D 20L from 38 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five. Cremonese haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 2W 12D 24L across 38 games — 0.47 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. Pisa haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cremonese by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pisa heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cremonese have managed 3W 7D 9L from 19 games — 0.84 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pisa's away record stands at 0W 8D 11L across 19 trips, a 0.42 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cremonese are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 0.68 scored and 1.87 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Pre-Season
Pisa
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Pisa in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 8W 10D 20L in their last 38 games (0.89 PPG), while Pisa have gone 2W 12D 24L in their last 38 (0.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Pisa away?
Cremonese's home record (0.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 0.84 PPG; Pisa away: 0.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cremonese and Pisa runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Mar 2022, when Pisa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cremonese's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Cremonese
2
Draws
4
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Pisa?
From 8 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 2, Pisa have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Cremonese 3-0 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 53%, Pisa 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Cremonese) and 68% (Pisa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Cremonese have failed to score in 37% of games; Pisa in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Cremonese's recent matches and 53% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Cremonese's matches and 68% of Pisa's.
Do Cremonese and Pisa tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Pisa in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.