Cremonese 3-2 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cremonese at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Monza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 21 as Cremonese welcome Monza to Stadio Giovanni Zini. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 February 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Cremonese have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cremonese have posted 5W 4D 1L at Stadio Giovanni Zini — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Monza — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monza's form when playing away from home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cremonese at 1.80 PPG versus Monza's 2.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Cremonese, 1 for Monza and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Monza winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Cremonese in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
Monza in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 50% versus Monza 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cremonese 40% | Monza 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.40 xG and Monza 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 1.179 / defence 1.021 | Monza attack 0.755 / defence 1.262. League average goals — home 0.943 / away 1.182. Monza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.262 — this is suppressing Cremonese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Cremonese games / 20 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 46% | Draw 32% | Monza 22%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | Monza 4.55. Cremonese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cremonese 50% | Monza 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Monza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Feb 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 46% | Draw 32% | Monza 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Cremonese 1.40 / Monza 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 1.179 / def 1.021 | Monza attack 0.755 / def 1.262 | league avg home 0.943 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Monza xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Monza kick off?
Cremonese vs Monza kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 6 February 2022 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Monza?
Cremonese 3 - 2 Monza.
Where is Cremonese vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Monza part of?
Cremonese vs Monza is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 46% chance of winning, Monza a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Cremonese and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Monza?
Record (1 meetings): Cremonese 0W | Draws 0 | Monza 1W.
What form are Cremonese and Monza in?
Cremonese (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Monza (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cremonese's attack at 1.18x the league average against Monza's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Monza's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
46%
2.18
32%
3.11
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.31
0.91
Monza xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
18%
5.42
5%
18.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.6 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Cremonese and 0.91 for Monza, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cremonese's recent record stands at 10W 5D 5L from 20 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Monza, meanwhile, have gone 9W 8D 3L across 20 games — 1.75 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 1.75 PPG, Monza on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cremonese have managed 5W 4D 1L from 10 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Monza's away record stands at 1W 6D 3L across 10 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Monza's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cremonese are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.40 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Monza in 60%.
Defensively: Monza in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Monza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Monza in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 10W 5D 5L in their last 20 games (1.75 PPG), while Monza have gone 9W 8D 3L in their last 20 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Monza away?
Cremonese's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.90 PPG; Monza away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Monza in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Cremonese's record when hosting Monza specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cremonese
1
Draws
2
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Monza?
From 4 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 1, Monza have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2023, when Monza 1-1 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Monza?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 50%, Monza 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Cremonese and 30% for Monza.
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Monza in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Monza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Cremonese's games and 60% of Monza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cremonese vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Cremonese's recent games and 30% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Monza tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Monza in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cremonese edge out Monza 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Monza 3-2 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.40 xG and Monza 0.91 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Cremonese beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Monza outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 1.18 / defence 1.02 against Monza attack 0.76 / defence 1.26, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 46% | Draw 32% | Monza 22%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 40%, Monza 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Monza's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.75 PPG, Monza 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cremonese win broke the near-deadlock. Cremonese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Monza (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.