Cremonese 2-1 Como – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cremonese at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs Como encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cremonese host Como at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie B, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 March 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Cremonese — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: D D D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Cremonese have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Giovanni Zini. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Como stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Como away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cremonese at 2.10 PPG versus Como's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
Cremonese hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 3 previous encounters compared to 0 for Como, with 0 draws in between.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2023, ended 3–1 with Cremonese winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Cremonese and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Cremonese in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Como in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 48% versus Como 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 46% | Como 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.17 xG and Como 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.982 / defence 0.829 | Como attack 0.977 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.259 / away 1.248. Data: 28 Cremonese games / 66 Como games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 38% | Draw 33% | Como 30%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.63 | Draw 3.03 | Como 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cremonese at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 30% | Como 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Como | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Mar 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 38% | Draw 33% | Como 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 46% | xG Cremonese 1.17 / Como 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.982 / def 0.829 | Como attack 0.977 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.259 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Como xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Como kick off?
Cremonese vs Como kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Como?
Cremonese 2 - 1 Como.
Where is Cremonese vs Como being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Como part of?
Cremonese vs Como is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Como?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 38% chance of winning, Como a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Como?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Cremonese and Como will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Como have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Como?
Record (3 meetings): Cremonese 3W | Draws 0 | Como 0W.
What form are Cremonese and Como in?
Cremonese (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Como (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cremonese's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Como's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Como's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
38%
2.66
33%
3.04
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.18
1.01
Como xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
14%
7.32
9%
10.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 11.4 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Como?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Como expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.01 for Como, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Como?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cremonese come into this having played 66 games, going 20W 20D 26L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-W.
On the other side, Como sit at 1.50 PPG from 66 outings (25W 24D 17L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 1.21 PPG, Como on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cremonese's home form reads 10W 9D 14L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Como have taken 1.21 points per game from 33 outings (9W 13D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Cremonese are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Como are on 1.30 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Current Season
Como
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Como in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 20W 20D 26L in their last 66 games (1.21 PPG), while Como have gone 25W 24D 17L in their last 66 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Como away?
Como's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.18 PPG; Como away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Como been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Como in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 May 2026, when Como won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cremonese's record when hosting Como specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Cremonese
1
Draws
1
Como
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Como?
From 6 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 4, Como have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Como last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Cremonese 1-4 Como.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Como?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 39%, Como 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Cremonese) and 46% (Como).
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Como in 36%; Cremonese have failed to score in 33% of games; Como in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Como away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Como?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Cremonese's recent matches and 46% of Como's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Como usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Cremonese's recent games and 46% of Como's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Como tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Como in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cremonese edge out Como 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Como 2-1 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.17 xG and Como 1.01 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Cremonese beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.98 / defence 0.83 against Como attack 0.98 / defence 0.95, drawn from 28/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 38% | Draw 33% | Como 30%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 46%, Como 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Como's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.21 PPG, Como 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cremonese win broke the near-deadlock. Cremonese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.