Como 0-1 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Como at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Como vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia plays host to Como versus Pisa in Serie B, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Sunday 5 December 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Como (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Como, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Como's home record at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia: 3W 2D 2L from 7 Serie B appearances (1.57 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game.
Pisa's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 2L across 7 road games this term (1.57 PPG). Away from home they average 1.57 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Como's favour (1.90 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Como half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games).
Pisa half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Como 67% and Pisa 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Como 40% | Pisa 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Como 1.21 xG and Pisa 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Como attack 1.042 / defence 0.970 | Pisa attack 0.910 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.010 / away 1.183. Data: 15 Como games / 15 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Como 39% | Draw 30% | Pisa 31%. Fair-value odds: Como 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Pisa 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Como at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Como if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Como 43% | Pisa 71%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Como vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Como 39% | Draw 30% | Pisa 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Como 1.21 / Pisa 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Como attack 1.042 / def 0.970 | Pisa attack 0.910 / def 1.146 | league avg home 1.010 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Como (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Como xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Pisa xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Como vs Pisa kick off?
Como vs Pisa kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What was the final score in Como vs Pisa?
Como 0 - 1 Pisa.
Where is Como vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What competition is Como vs Pisa part of?
Como vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Como vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Como a 39% chance of winning, Pisa a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Como the favourite.
Will both teams score in Como vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Como and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Como vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Pisa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Como and Pisa in?
Como (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Pisa (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Como's attack rating (1.04) and Pisa's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pisa's attack (0.91x) against Como's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Como Win
39%
2.57
30%
3.31
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Como xG
Total xG
2.25
1.04
Pisa xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
14%
7.30
9%
10.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.0 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Como vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Como and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Como and 1.04 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Como vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 15 outings, Como have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 5W 6D 4L record — W-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Como is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pisa's form line: 8W 5D 2L from 15 games, 1.93 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-D. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Pisa are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Como.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Como have posted 1.57 PPG from 7 outings (3W 2D 2L).
On the road, Pisa have gone 3W 2D 2L from 7 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Como are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.47 scored and 0.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Como have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Pisa in 60%.
Last 15 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Como
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Como and Pisa in coming into this match?
Como have gone 5W 6D 4L in their last 15 games (1.40 PPG), while Pisa have gone 8W 5D 2L in their last 15 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Como at home or Pisa away?
Como's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Como at home: 1.57 PPG; Pisa away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Como or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Como have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Pisa in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Como go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Como won 5-0 on 22 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Como have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Pisa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Como
3
Draws
2
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Pisa?
From 8 meetings on record, Como have won 3, Pisa have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Como and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Como 5-0 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Como and Pisa?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Como see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Como 43%, Pisa 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 14% for Como and 43% for Pisa.
On the defensive side: Como have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Como home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Como play Pisa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Como's games and 71% of Pisa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Como vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Como's recent games and 43% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Como and Pisa tend to score early?
Como have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Pisa in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pisa defy the odds to beat Como 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Como 0-1 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Como 1.21 xG and Pisa 1.04 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Como fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Como attack 1.04 / defence 0.97 against Pisa attack 0.91 / defence 1.15, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Como 39% | Draw 30% | Pisa 31%, with Como to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Pisa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Como 40%, Pisa 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Como's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Pisa's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.40. That form edge translated into the three points. Como (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Pisa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.