Como 1-0 Perugia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Perugia at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Como vs Perugia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 8 as Como welcome Perugia to Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 October 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Como have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Como have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Como have posted 1W 3D 6L at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Perugia stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Perugia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Perugia's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Como 0.60 PPG, Perugia 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Como, 0 for Perugia and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Mar 2022, ended 1–0 with Como winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Como in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games).
Perugia in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Como 64% versus Perugia 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Como 38% | Perugia 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Como 1.13 xG and Perugia 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Como attack 0.880 / defence 1.277 | Perugia attack 0.830 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.091. Data: 45 Como games / 45 Perugia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Como 35% | Draw 28% | Perugia 36%. Fair-value odds: Como 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Perugia 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Perugia are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Perugia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Como 50% | Perugia 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Como vs Perugia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Como 35% | Draw 28% | Perugia 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Como 1.13 / Perugia 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Como attack 0.880 / def 1.277 | Perugia attack 0.830 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Perugia (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Como xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Perugia xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Como vs Perugia kick off?
Como vs Perugia kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What was the final score in Como vs Perugia?
Como 1 - 0 Perugia.
Where is Como vs Perugia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What competition is Como vs Perugia part of?
Como vs Perugia is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Como vs Perugia?
Our statistical model gives Como a 35% chance of winning, Perugia a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Perugia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Como vs Perugia?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Como and Perugia will score (BTTS).
Will Como vs Perugia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Perugia?
Record (2 meetings): Como 2W | Draws 0 | Perugia 0W.
What form are Como and Perugia in?
Como (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Perugia (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Como's attack rating (0.88) and Perugia's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Perugia's attack versus Como's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Perugia Win
35%
2.84
28%
3.52
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Como xG
Total xG
2.29
1.16
Perugia xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
11%
9.03
12%
8.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 11.7 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Como vs Perugia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Como and Perugia expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Como and 1.16 for Perugia, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Como vs Perugia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, Como have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 11W 17D 17L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Como, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Perugia's form line: 14W 17D 14L from 45 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Perugia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Como on 1.11 PPG, Perugia on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Como have posted 1.09 PPG from 22 outings (5W 9D 8L).
On the road, Perugia have gone 7W 8D 7L from 22 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Como are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Perugia are on 1.00 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Como have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Como
Early Season
Perugia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Como and Perugia in coming into this match?
Como have gone 11W 17D 17L in their last 45 games (1.11 PPG), while Perugia have gone 14W 17D 14L in their last 45 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Como at home or Perugia away?
Perugia's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Como at home: 1.09 PPG; Perugia away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Como or Perugia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Como have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Perugia in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Como and Perugia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2021, when Como won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Como's record when hosting Perugia specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Como
1
Draws
0
Perugia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Perugia?
From 4 meetings on record, Como have won 3, Perugia have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Como and Perugia last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2023, when Perugia 0-0 Como.
Who has won more matches between Como and Perugia?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Como 59%, Perugia 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 23% for Como and 46% for Perugia.
On the defensive side: Perugia in 32%; Como have failed to score in 27% of games; Perugia in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Como home games / Perugia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Como play Perugia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Como's games and 54% of Perugia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Como vs Perugia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Como's recent games and 46% of Perugia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Como and Perugia tend to score early?
Como have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Perugia in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Como defy the odds to beat Perugia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Como beat Perugia 1-0 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Como 1.13 xG and Perugia 1.16 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Perugia landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Como attack 0.88 / defence 1.28 against Perugia attack 0.83 / defence 1.02, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Como 35% | Draw 28% | Perugia 36%, with Perugia to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Como win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Como 38%, Perugia 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Como's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Perugia's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Como 1.11 PPG, Perugia 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Como win broke the near-deadlock. Como (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Perugia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.