Como 1-2 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cremonese at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Como vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees Cremonese travel to Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia to take on Como. The game is scheduled for Friday 6 May 2022, 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Como — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Como's home record at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Cremonese have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Cremonese have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Cremonese — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Como register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Cremonese in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Como, 1 for Cremonese and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2022, ended 0–2 with Cremonese winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Como in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games).
Cremonese in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Como 65% and Cremonese 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Como 35% | Cremonese 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Como 1.04 xG and Cremonese 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Como attack 0.808 / defence 1.244 | Cremonese attack 0.952 / defence 1.199. League average goals — home 1.073 / away 1.080. Data: 37 Como games / 37 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Como 29% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 40%. Fair-value odds: Como 3.45 | Draw 3.23 | Cremonese 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Como 70% | Cremonese 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Como vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia • Kick-off: Friday 6 May 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Como 29% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Como 1.04 / Cremonese 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Como attack 0.808 / def 1.244 | Cremonese attack 0.952 / def 1.199 | league avg home 1.073 / away 1.080 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Como xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Cremonese xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Como vs Cremonese kick off?
Como vs Cremonese kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 6 May 2022 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What was the final score in Como vs Cremonese?
Como 1 - 2 Cremonese.
Where is Como vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What competition is Como vs Cremonese part of?
Como vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Como vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Como a 29% chance of winning, Cremonese a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Como vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Como and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Como vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Cremonese?
Record (1 meetings): Como 0W | Draws 0 | Cremonese 1W.
What form are Como and Cremonese in?
Como (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Cremonese (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Como's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Cremonese's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Como's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
29%
3.48
31%
3.24
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Como xG
Total xG
2.32
1.28
Cremonese xG
3.48
29%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
8%
12.50
14%
7.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 12.6 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Como vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Como and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Como and 1.28 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Como vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Como come into this having played 37 games, going 11W 14D 12L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, Cremonese sit at 1.78 PPG from 37 outings (19W 9D 9L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Cremonese carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Como — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Como's home form reads 5W 7D 6L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Cremonese have taken 1.50 points per game from 18 outings (8W 3D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Como are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.49 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Como have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 37 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Como
Current Season
Cremonese
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Como and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Como have gone 11W 14D 12L in their last 37 games (1.27 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 19W 9D 9L in their last 37 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Como at home or Cremonese away?
Cremonese's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Como at home: 1.22 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Como and Cremonese runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 May 2026, when Como won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Como's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Como
1
Draws
4
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Cremonese?
From 6 meetings on record, Como have won 1, Cremonese have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Como and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Cremonese 1-4 Como.
Who has won more matches between Como and Cremonese?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Como 56%, Cremonese 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Como and 50% for Cremonese.
On the defensive side: Como have failed to score in 28% of games; Cremonese in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Como home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Como play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Como's recent matches and 50% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Como vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Como's recent games and 50% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Como and Cremonese tend to score early?
Como have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cremonese edge out Como 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Como 1-2 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Como 1.04 xG and Cremonese 1.28 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Como attack 0.81 / defence 1.24 against Cremonese attack 0.95 / defence 1.20, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Como 29% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 40%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Como 35%, Cremonese 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Como's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Cremonese's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Como (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.