Cittadella 1-1 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cittadella at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cittadella vs Cosenza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 14 as Cittadella welcome Cosenza to Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato. Kick-off is set for Sunday 27 November 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Cittadella have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Cittadella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cittadella have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
Cosenza — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Cosenza have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Cittadella) versus 0.80 (Cosenza). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Cittadella, 1 for Cosenza and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2022, ended 0–1 with Cosenza winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Cittadella in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Cosenza in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cittadella 41% versus Cosenza 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cittadella 31% | Cosenza 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cittadella 1.30 xG and Cosenza 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cittadella attack 0.774 / defence 0.880 | Cosenza attack 0.765 / defence 1.355. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.113. Cittadella's attack strength of 0.774 is below the league average — the 1.30 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cosenza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.355 — this is suppressing Cittadella's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Cittadella games / 51 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cittadella 48% | Draw 32% | Cosenza 20%. Fair-value odds: Cittadella 2.08 | Draw 3.12 | Cosenza 5.00. Cittadella hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cittadella as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cittadella offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cittadella 40% | Cosenza 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cittadella vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Nov 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cittadella 48% | Draw 32% | Cosenza 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Cittadella 1.30 / Cosenza 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Cittadella attack 0.774 / def 0.880 | Cosenza attack 0.765 / def 1.355 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Cittadella (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Cittadella xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Cosenza xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cittadella vs Cosenza kick off?
Cittadella vs Cosenza kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 27 November 2022 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What was the final score in Cittadella vs Cosenza?
Cittadella 1 - 1 Cosenza.
Where is Cittadella vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What competition is Cittadella vs Cosenza part of?
Cittadella vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cittadella vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Cittadella a 48% chance of winning, Cosenza a 20% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Cittadella the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cittadella vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Cittadella and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Cittadella vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Cosenza?
Record (2 meetings): Cittadella 0W | Draws 1 | Cosenza 1W.
What form are Cittadella and Cosenza in?
Cittadella (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Cosenza (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cittadella's attack at 0.77x the league average against Cosenza's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cosenza's attack versus Cittadella's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cittadella Win
48%
2.07
32%
3.15
20%
5.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Cittadella xG
Total xG
2.05
0.75
Cosenza xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
5.01
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
23%
4.39
5%
18.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 12.5 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cittadella vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Cittadella and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Cittadella and 0.75 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Cittadella vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cittadella's recent record stands at 16W 19D 16L from 51 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Cittadella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cosenza, meanwhile, have gone 13W 13D 25L across 51 games — 1.02 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cittadella on 1.31 PPG, Cosenza on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cittadella have managed 9W 8D 8L from 25 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cosenza's away record stands at 1W 10D 14L across 25 trips, a 0.52 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cosenza's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cittadella come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cittadella are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 1.00 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Defensively: Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cittadella
Blended
Cosenza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cittadella and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Cittadella have gone 16W 19D 16L in their last 51 games (1.31 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 13W 13D 25L in their last 51 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cittadella at home or Cosenza away?
Cittadella's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cittadella at home: 1.40 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.52 PPG.
Have Cittadella or Cosenza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Cosenza in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Cittadella's record when hosting Cosenza specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Cittadella
5
Draws
1
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Cosenza?
From 8 meetings on record, Cittadella have won 2, Cosenza have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Cittadella and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Cosenza 0-1 Cittadella.
Who has won more matches between Cittadella and Cosenza?
Cittadella have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cittadella see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cittadella 40%, Cosenza 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Cittadella) and 40% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Cittadella keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Cittadella have failed to score in 32% of games; Cosenza in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cittadella home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cittadella play Cosenza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Cittadella's recent matches and 56% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cittadella vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Cittadella's recent games and 40% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cittadella and Cosenza tend to score early?
Cittadella have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cittadella and Cosenza share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato, Regular Season - 14, as Cittadella and Cosenza drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cittadella 1.30 xG and Cosenza 0.75 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cittadella attack 0.77 / defence 0.88 against Cosenza attack 0.77 / defence 1.35, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cittadella 48% | Draw 32% | Cosenza 20%, with Cittadella to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cittadella 31%, Cosenza 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cittadella's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Cosenza's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cittadella 1.31 PPG, Cosenza 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cosenza (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.