Cittadella 1-1 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cittadella at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cittadella vs Cosenza encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 19 as Cittadella welcome Cosenza to Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato. Kick-off is set for Sunday 30 January 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Cittadella have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cittadella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cittadella have posted 5W 2D 2L at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato — 1.89 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
Cosenza — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Cosenza have posted 0W 3D 6L from 9 away outings — 0.33 PPG. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Cittadella carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Cittadella in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Cosenza in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cittadella 47% versus Cosenza 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cittadella 32% | Cosenza 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cittadella 1.68 xG and Cosenza 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cittadella attack 1.095 / defence 1.007 | Cosenza attack 0.701 / defence 1.574. League average goals — home 0.976 / away 1.256. Cosenza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.574 — this is suppressing Cittadella's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Cittadella games / 19 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cittadella 55% | Draw 26% | Cosenza 19%. Fair-value odds: Cittadella 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Cosenza 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Cittadella (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cittadella as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cittadella 44% | Cosenza 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cittadella vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jan 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cittadella 55% | Draw 26% | Cosenza 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 49% | xG Cittadella 1.68 / Cosenza 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Cittadella attack 1.095 / def 1.007 | Cosenza attack 0.701 / def 1.574 | league avg home 0.976 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Cittadella (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Cittadella xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Cosenza xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cittadella vs Cosenza kick off?
Cittadella vs Cosenza kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 30 January 2022 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What was the final score in Cittadella vs Cosenza?
Cittadella 1 - 1 Cosenza.
Where is Cittadella vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What competition is Cittadella vs Cosenza part of?
Cittadella vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cittadella vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Cittadella a 55% chance of winning, Cosenza a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cittadella the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cittadella vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Cittadella and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Cittadella vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Cosenza?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cittadella and Cosenza in?
Cittadella (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Cosenza (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cittadella's attack at 1.09x the league average against Cosenza's defence at 1.57x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cosenza's attack versus Cittadella's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cittadella Win
55%
1.81
26%
3.87
19%
5.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Cittadella xG
Total xG
2.57
0.89
Cosenza xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
5.31
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
19%
5.38
Win to Nil
23%
4.39
4%
28.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 11.4 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cittadella vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Cittadella and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Cittadella and 0.89 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Cittadella vs Cosenza?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cittadella's recent record stands at 8W 6D 5L from 19 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Cittadella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cosenza, meanwhile, have gone 4W 4D 11L across 19 games — 0.84 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cittadella by 0.74 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cosenza heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cittadella have managed 5W 2D 2L from 9 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cosenza's away record stands at 0W 3D 6L across 9 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.84 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cosenza's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cittadella come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cittadella are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 0.84 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Defensively: Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cittadella
Blended
Cosenza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cittadella and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Cittadella have gone 8W 6D 5L in their last 19 games (1.58 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 4W 4D 11L in their last 19 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cittadella at home or Cosenza away?
Cittadella's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cittadella at home: 1.89 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Cittadella or Cosenza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Cosenza in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Cittadella's record when hosting Cosenza specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Cittadella
5
Draws
1
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Cosenza?
From 8 meetings on record, Cittadella have won 2, Cosenza have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Cittadella and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Cosenza 0-1 Cittadella.
Who has won more matches between Cittadella and Cosenza?
Cittadella have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cittadella see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cittadella 44%, Cosenza 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Cittadella) and 44% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Cittadella keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Cosenza in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cittadella home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cittadella play Cosenza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Cittadella's games and 67% of Cosenza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cittadella vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Cittadella's recent games and 44% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cittadella and Cosenza tend to score early?
Cittadella have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cittadella and Cosenza share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cittadella and Cosenza finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cittadella 1.68 xG and Cosenza 0.89 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cittadella attack 1.09 / defence 1.01 against Cosenza attack 0.70 / defence 1.57, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cittadella 55% | Draw 26% | Cosenza 19%, with Cittadella to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cittadella 32%, Cosenza 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cittadella's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Cosenza's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cittadella arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cosenza (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.