Cesena 0-4 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Venezia at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cesena vs Venezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Dino Manuzzi plays host to Cesena versus Venezia in Serie B, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cesena have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cesena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cesena's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Dino Manuzzi this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Cesena are significantly better at Stadio Dino Manuzzi than their overall form suggests.
Venezia's overall Serie B record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Venezia have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Venezia are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Cesena have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Venezia in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Cesena 1W, Venezia 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with Cesena winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Cesena goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Venezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cesena 58% versus Venezia 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cesena 44% | Venezia 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cesena 1.26 xG and Venezia 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cesena attack 0.967 / defence 1.028 | Venezia attack 1.455 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.286 / away 1.035. Venezia have an above-average attack strength of 1.455 — the away xG of 1.55 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 62 Cesena games / 24 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cesena 31% | Draw 26% | Venezia 43%. Fair-value odds: Cesena 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Venezia 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Venezia as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Venezia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cesena 60% | Venezia 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cesena vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Dino Manuzzi • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cesena 31% | Draw 26% | Venezia 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Cesena 1.26 / Venezia 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Cesena attack 0.967 / def 1.028 | Venezia attack 1.455 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.286 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Venezia (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Cesena xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Venezia xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cesena vs Venezia kick off?
Cesena vs Venezia kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Stadio Dino Manuzzi.
What was the final score in Cesena vs Venezia?
Cesena 0 - 4 Venezia.
Where is Cesena vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Dino Manuzzi.
What competition is Cesena vs Venezia part of?
Cesena vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cesena vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Cesena a 31% chance of winning, Venezia a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cesena vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Cesena and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Cesena vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cesena and Venezia?
Record (1 meetings): Cesena 1W | Draws 0 | Venezia 0W.
What form are Cesena and Venezia in?
Cesena (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Venezia (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cesena's attack rating (0.97) and Venezia's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Venezia's attack (1.46x) against Cesena's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 62/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
31%
3.27
26%
3.83
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Cesena xG
Total xG
2.81
1.55
Venezia xG
3.27
31%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
6%
15.40
12%
8.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.3 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.4 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cesena vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Cesena and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Cesena and 1.55 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Cesena vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cesena's recent record stands at 24W 15D 23L from 62 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Cesena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Venezia, meanwhile, have gone 20W 19D 23L across 62 games — 1.27 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Cesena against 1.27 for Venezia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cesena have managed 12W 10D 7L from 29 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Venezia's away record stands at 5W 13D 11L across 29 trips, a 0.97 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cesena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cesena are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.26 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cesena
Blended
Venezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cesena and Venezia in coming into this match?
Cesena have gone 24W 15D 23L in their last 62 games (1.40 PPG), while Venezia have gone 20W 19D 23L in their last 62 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cesena at home or Venezia away?
Cesena's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cesena at home: 1.59 PPG; Venezia away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Cesena
0
Draws
1
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cesena and Venezia?
From 2 meetings on record, Cesena have won 1, Venezia have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cesena and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Cesena 0-4 Venezia.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cesena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cesena 59%, Venezia 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Cesena) and 55% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Cesena keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Venezia in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cesena home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cesena play Venezia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Cesena's games and 66% of Venezia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cesena vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Cesena's recent games and 55% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cesena and Venezia tend to score early?
Cesena have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Venezia in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Venezia run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Cesena.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Cesena 0-4 at Stadio Dino Manuzzi, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cesena 1.26 xG and Venezia 1.55 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Cesena fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Venezia outscored their 1.55 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cesena attack 0.97 / defence 1.03 against Venezia attack 1.46 / defence 1.02, drawn from 62/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cesena 31% | Draw 26% | Venezia 43%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cesena 44%, Venezia 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cesena's trading profile (62 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Venezia's trading profile (62 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cesena 1.40 PPG, Venezia 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock. Cesena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.