Cesena 2-1 Carrarese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cesena at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cesena face Carrarese.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Carrarese make the trip to Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi to face Cesena in Serie B (matchday 1). The match kicks off on Sunday 18 August 2024 at 20:30 UK time.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cesena 1.32 xG and Carrarese 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cesena attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Carrarese attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.213. Data: built from Cesena's last 0 games and Carrarese's last 0. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Cesena 38% | Draw 29% | Carrarese 32%. Fair-value odds: Cesena 2.60 | Draw 3.41 | Carrarese 3.11. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cesena are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cesena if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Cesena 0 games, Carrarese 0) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cesena vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, matchday 1 | Venue: Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi • Kick-off: Sunday 18 August 2024 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cesena 38% | Draw 29% | Carrarese 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Cesena 1.32 / Carrarese 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Cesena attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Carrarese attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Cesena (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Cesena xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Carrarese xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cesena vs Carrarese FAQs
What time does Cesena vs Carrarese kick off?
Cesena vs Carrarese kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Sunday 18 August 2024 at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi.
What was the final score in Cesena vs Carrarese?
Cesena 2 - 1 Carrarese.
Where is Cesena vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi.
What competition is Cesena vs Carrarese part of?
Cesena vs Carrarese is a Serie B fixture (matchday 1) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cesena vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Cesena a 38% chance of winning, Carrarese a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cesena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cesena vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Cesena and Carrarese will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cesena vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cesena's attack at 0.85x the league average against Carrarese's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Carrarese's attack (0.85x) against Cesena's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from Cesena's last 0 games and Carrarese's last 0, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cesena Win
38%
2.60
29%
3.41
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Cesena xG
Total xG
2.50
1.19
Carrarese xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
12%
8.51
9%
11.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.8 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cesena vs Carrarese Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cesena vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Cesena and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Cesena and 1.19 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Cesena vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cesena
Pre-Season
Carrarese
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Cesena (Home) vs Carrarese (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cesena
Pre-Season
Carrarese
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2024 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 1 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cesena have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Carrarese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Cesena
1
Draws
1
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Cesena vs Carrarese H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cesena and Carrarese?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Cesena have won 2, Carrarese have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Cesena and Carrarese last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 May 2026: Carrarese 0-0 Cesena.
Who has won more matches between Cesena and Carrarese?
Cesena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cesena home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Cesena edge out Carrarese 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cesena beat Carrarese 2-1 at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cesena 1.32 xG and Carrarese 1.19 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cesena attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Carrarese attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cesena 38% | Draw 29% | Carrarese 32%, with Cesena to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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