Carrarese 0-1 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Carrarese at 40%, yet in-form Palermo provide a compelling counter-argument — this Carrarese vs Palermo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Carrarese host Palermo at Stadio dei Marmi in Serie B, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 8 March 2026 at 16:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Carrarese — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Carrarese at Stadio dei Marmi this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio dei Marmi. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie B games this season, Palermo have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Palermo have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Palermo — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Carrarese have won 1, Palermo 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 0–5 with Palermo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Carrarese in-play and half-time data (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Palermo in-play and half-time data (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 48% versus Palermo 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 47% | Palermo 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.34 xG and Palermo 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 1.003 / defence 0.903 | Palermo attack 1.149 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.136. Data: 66 Carrarese games / 66 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carrarese 40% | Draw 29% | Palermo 32%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Palermo 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Carrarese are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Palermo (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Carrarese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Carrarese 30% | Palermo 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carrarese vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadio dei Marmi • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Mar 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carrarese 40% | Draw 29% | Palermo 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Carrarese 1.34 / Palermo 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Carrarese attack 1.003 / def 0.903 | Palermo attack 1.149 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Carrarese (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Carrarese xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Palermo xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carrarese vs Palermo kick off?
Carrarese vs Palermo kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 8 March 2026 at Stadio dei Marmi.
What was the final score in Carrarese vs Palermo?
Carrarese 0 - 1 Palermo.
Where is Carrarese vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio dei Marmi.
What competition is Carrarese vs Palermo part of?
Carrarese vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Carrarese vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Carrarese a 40% chance of winning, Palermo a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Carrarese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Carrarese and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Carrarese vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Palermo?
Record (3 meetings): Carrarese 1W | Draws 1 | Palermo 1W.
What form are Carrarese and Palermo in?
Carrarese (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Palermo (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Carrarese's attack rating (1.00) and Palermo's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Palermo's attack versus Carrarese's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carrarese Win
40%
2.52
29%
3.50
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Carrarese xG
Total xG
2.52
1.18
Palermo xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
12%
8.21
8%
12.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.7 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carrarese vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Carrarese and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Carrarese and 1.18 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Carrarese vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Carrarese come into this having played 66 games, going 18W 23D 25L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D.
On the other side, Palermo sit at 1.61 PPG from 66 outings (29W 19D 18L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Palermo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Carrarese — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Carrarese's home form reads 14W 11D 7L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.66 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Carrarese are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Palermo have taken 1.28 points per game from 32 outings (10W 11D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Carrarese are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.52 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Palermo in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carrarese
Current Season
Palermo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carrarese and Palermo in coming into this match?
Carrarese have gone 18W 23D 25L in their last 66 games (1.17 PPG), while Palermo have gone 29W 19D 18L in their last 66 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carrarese at home or Palermo away?
Carrarese's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carrarese at home: 1.66 PPG; Palermo away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Carrarese or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Palermo in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Carrarese and Palermo runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Palermo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Nov 2025, when Palermo won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Carrarese's record when hosting Palermo specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Carrarese
1
Draws
2
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Palermo?
From 4 meetings on record, Carrarese have won 1, Palermo have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Carrarese and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Carrarese 0-1 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Carrarese and Palermo?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Carrarese see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carrarese 34%, Palermo 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Carrarese) and 56% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Carrarese keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Carrarese have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carrarese home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carrarese play Palermo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of Carrarese's recent matches and 66% of Palermo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carrarese vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Carrarese's recent games and 56% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carrarese and Palermo tend to score early?
Carrarese have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Palermo in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Palermo defy the odds to beat Carrarese 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Carrarese 0-1 at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.34 xG and Palermo 1.18 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Carrarese fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 1.00 / defence 0.90 against Palermo attack 1.15 / defence 1.03, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carrarese 40% | Draw 29% | Palermo 32%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Palermo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 47%, Palermo 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carrarese's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Palermo's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Palermo arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. Carrarese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward. Palermo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.