Carrarese 0-1 Monza – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Carrarese at 42%, yet in-form Monza provide a compelling counter-argument — this Carrarese vs Monza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Monza make the trip to Stadio dei Marmi to face Carrarese in Serie B, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Form
Carrarese (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Carrarese have posted 5W 4D 1L at Stadio dei Marmi — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio dei Marmi. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Carrarese are significantly better at Stadio dei Marmi than their overall form suggests.
Monza's overall Serie B record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monza's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Monza are 0.60 PPG clear of Carrarese in recent Serie B fixtures (2.00 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Carrarese lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2025, ended 1–4 with Monza winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Carrarese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Monza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 48% versus Monza 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 48% | Monza 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.09 xG and Monza 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.970 / defence 0.756 | Monza attack 0.937 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.099. Carrarese's defence rating of 0.756 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 63 Carrarese games / 25 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carrarese 42% | Draw 33% | Monza 25%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 2.38 | Draw 3.03 | Monza 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Carrarese as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Monza (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Carrarese if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.87 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Carrarese 20% | Monza 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carrarese vs Monza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio dei Marmi • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carrarese 42% | Draw 33% | Monza 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Carrarese 1.09 / Monza 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Carrarese attack 0.970 / def 0.756 | Monza attack 0.937 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.280 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Carrarese (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Carrarese xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Monza xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carrarese vs Monza kick off?
Carrarese vs Monza kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Stadio dei Marmi.
What was the final score in Carrarese vs Monza?
Carrarese 0 - 1 Monza.
Where is Carrarese vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio dei Marmi.
What competition is Carrarese vs Monza part of?
Carrarese vs Monza is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Carrarese vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Carrarese a 42% chance of winning, Monza a 25% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Carrarese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Carrarese and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Carrarese vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Monza?
Record (1 meetings): Carrarese 0W | Draws 0 | Monza 1W.
What form are Carrarese and Monza in?
Carrarese (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Monza (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Carrarese's attack rating (0.97) and Monza's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Monza's attack (0.94x) against Carrarese's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 63/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carrarese Win
42%
2.38
33%
3.06
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Carrarese xG
Total xG
1.87
0.78
Monza xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.74
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
19%
5.18
8%
11.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 12.0 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 13.1 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.2 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carrarese vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Carrarese and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Carrarese and 0.78 for Monza, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Carrarese vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Carrarese's recent record stands at 18W 21D 24L from 63 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Carrarese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Monza, meanwhile, have gone 18W 15D 30L across 63 games — 1.10 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Carrarese against 1.10 for Monza. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Carrarese have managed 15W 10D 6L from 31 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — Carrarese are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Monza's away record stands at 7W 8D 16L across 31 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Carrarese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Carrarese are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.05 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carrarese
Blended
Monza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carrarese and Monza in coming into this match?
Carrarese have gone 18W 21D 24L in their last 63 games (1.19 PPG), while Monza have gone 18W 15D 30L in their last 63 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carrarese at home or Monza away?
Carrarese's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carrarese at home: 1.77 PPG; Monza away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Carrarese or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Monza in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Carrarese
0
Draws
2
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Monza?
From 2 meetings on record, Carrarese have won 0, Monza have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Carrarese and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Carrarese 0-1 Monza.
Who has won more matches between Carrarese and Monza?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Carrarese see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Monza see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carrarese 32%, Monza 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Carrarese) and 48% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Carrarese keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Carrarese have failed to score in 36% of games; Monza in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carrarese home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carrarese play Monza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Carrarese's recent matches and 48% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carrarese vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Carrarese's recent games and 48% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Monza defy the odds to beat Carrarese 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza beat Carrarese 0-1 at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.09 xG and Monza 0.78 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Carrarese fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 0.97 / defence 0.76 against Monza attack 0.94 / defence 0.88, drawn from 63/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carrarese 42% | Draw 33% | Monza 25%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Monza win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 48%, Monza 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carrarese's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Monza's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.19 PPG, Monza 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monza win broke the near-deadlock. Carrarese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Monza (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.