Carrarese vs Juve Stabia – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Carrarese at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carrarese vs Juve Stabia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Stadio dei Marmi plays host to Carrarese versus Juve Stabia in Serie B, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 28 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Carrarese have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Carrarese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

At home at Stadio dei Marmi, Carrarese have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Juve Stabia (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Juve Stabia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Juve Stabia away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Carrarese against 1.30 for Juve Stabia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Carrarese 1W, Juve Stabia 1W, 2D.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Carrarese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Juve Stabia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 50% versus Juve Stabia 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 50% | Juve Stabia 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.22 xG and Juve Stabia 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.968 / defence 1.032 | Juve Stabia attack 0.959 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.180. Data: 40 Carrarese games / 40 Juve Stabia games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.

Result probabilities: Carrarese 36% | Draw 30% | Juve Stabia 34%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Juve Stabia 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Carrarese at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Carrarese if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Carrarese 40% | Juve Stabia 60%.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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