Carrarese 2-1 Bari – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bari at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Carrarese vs Bari encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Carrarese welcome Bari to Stadio dei Marmi in Serie B (matchday 31). Kick-off is Sunday 30 March 2025 at 15:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Carrarese have gone 1W 3D 6L — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Carrarese have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Carrarese are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Bari — last 10 games: 2W 7D 1L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Bari have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bari are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Carrarese have won 0, Bari 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 0.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 29 Oct 2024, ended Carrarese 0–0 Bari — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Carrarese in-play and half-time data (last 30 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 36% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Bari in-play and half-time data (last 30 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 43% versus Bari 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Carrarese 43% | Bari 27%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Carrarese surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Bari have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 0.96 xG and Bari 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.912 / defence 1.175 | Bari attack 0.842 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 1.123. Data: built from Carrarese's last 30 games and Bari's last 68.

Result probabilities: Carrarese 29% | Draw 33% | Bari 37%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 3.39 | Draw 2.99 | Bari 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Bari as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Carrarese's last 10 home games and Bari's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Carrarese 30% (last 10 home games) | Bari 40% (last 10 away games).

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