Brescia 0-0 Ternana – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Brescia at 51% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brescia vs Ternana encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Stadio Mario Rigamonti plays host to Brescia versus Ternana in Serie B (matchday 34). Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 14:00 UK time.

Current Form

Brescia's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Brescia have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Brescia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Ternana (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

On the road, Ternana have gone 5W 0D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Brescia, 1.50 for Ternana — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

The head-to-head record in our data favours Brescia, who have won 3 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against Ternana — Ternana have 0 wins, with 2 draws.

Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.2 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 21 Oct 2023, ended Brescia 1–0 Ternana — a Brescia win.

The head-to-head data gives Brescia an edge — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

Trading Data

Brescia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Ternana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 54% versus Ternana 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brescia 32% | Ternana 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Brescia surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Ternana have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.81 xG and Ternana 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 1.144 / defence 0.903 | Ternana attack 1.058 / defence 1.288. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.215. Ternana's defence rating of 1.288 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Brescia's projected output up. Data: built from Brescia's last 71 games and Ternana's last 71.

Result probabilities: Brescia 51% | Draw 26% | Ternana 23%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 1.95 | Draw 3.87 | Ternana 4.36. Brescia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Brescia as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Brescia 3 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brescia if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Brescia's last 10 home games and Ternana's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Brescia 50% (last 10 home games) | Ternana 70% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights