Brescia 2-5 Sassuolo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brescia at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brescia vs Sassuolo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Mario Rigamonti plays host to Brescia versus Sassuolo in Serie B, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 19 October 2024 at 16:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Brescia have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Brescia have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Brescia are significantly better at Stadio Mario Rigamonti than their overall form suggests.
Sassuolo's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sassuolo's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Brescia half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sassuolo half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 54% versus Sassuolo 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brescia 37% | Sassuolo 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.36 xG and Sassuolo 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 1.251 / defence 0.865 | Sassuolo attack 0.949 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.243 / away 1.144. Brescia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.251 — their λ of 1.36 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 46 Brescia games / 8 Sassuolo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brescia 45% | Draw 31% | Sassuolo 24%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | Sassuolo 4.17. Brescia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Brescia as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brescia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Brescia 50% | Sassuolo 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 45% | Draw 31% | Sassuolo 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Brescia 1.36 / Sassuolo 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 1.251 / def 0.865 | Sassuolo attack 0.949 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.243 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Brescia (45%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Sassuolo xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Sassuolo kick off?
Brescia vs Sassuolo kicked off at 16:15 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Sassuolo?
Brescia 2 - 5 Sassuolo.
Where is Brescia vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Sassuolo part of?
Brescia vs Sassuolo is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 45% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Brescia and Sassuolo will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Sassuolo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Brescia and Sassuolo in?
Brescia (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Sassuolo (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Brescia vs Sassuolo?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Brescia's attack at 1.25x the league average against Sassuolo's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sassuolo's attack (0.95x) against Brescia's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 46/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
45%
2.24
31%
3.19
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Brescia xG
Total xG
2.30
0.94
Sassuolo xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
17%
5.73
6%
16.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.8 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Brescia and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Brescia and 0.94 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Sassuolo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 46 outings, Brescia have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 15W 16D 15L record — W-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sassuolo's form line: 11W 12D 23L from 46 games, 0.98 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-W. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Brescia against 0.98 for Sassuolo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Brescia have posted 1.59 PPG from 22 outings (9W 8D 5L).
On the road, Sassuolo have gone 4W 6D 12L from 22 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brescia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Brescia are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 1.24 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sassuolo in 61%.
Last 46 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Blended
Sassuolo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 15W 16D 15L in their last 46 games (1.33 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 11W 12D 23L in their last 46 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Sassuolo away?
Brescia's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.59 PPG; Sassuolo away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Brescia
0
Draws
2
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Sassuolo?
From 2 meetings on record, Brescia have won 0, Sassuolo have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Sassuolo last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Sassuolo 2-0 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Brescia and Sassuolo?
Sassuolo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Brescia see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 46%, Sassuolo 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Brescia) and 54% (Sassuolo).
On the defensive side: Brescia keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Brescia have failed to score in 36% of games; Sassuolo in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Sassuolo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Brescia's recent matches and 64% of Sassuolo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Brescia vs Sassuolo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Brescia's recent games and 54% of Sassuolo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Sassuolo tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Sassuolo in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sassuolo run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Brescia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sassuolo beat Brescia 2-5 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.36 xG and Sassuolo 0.94 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Sassuolo outscored their 0.94 projection by 4.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 1.25 / defence 0.86 against Sassuolo attack 0.95 / defence 0.87, drawn from 46/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 45% | Draw 31% | Sassuolo 24%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Sassuolo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 37%, Sassuolo 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Sassuolo's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brescia 1.33 PPG, Sassuolo 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sassuolo win broke the near-deadlock. Brescia (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sassuolo (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.