Brescia 1-0 Pordenone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brescia at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brescia vs Pordenone encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Mario Rigamonti plays host to Brescia versus Pordenone in Serie B, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 6 November 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Brescia have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Brescia have posted 2W 2D 1L at Stadio Mario Rigamonti — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Pordenone (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pordenone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Pordenone have posted 0W 1D 4L from 5 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in Brescia's favour (1.80 vs 0.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Brescia half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Pordenone half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 64% versus Pordenone 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brescia 54% | Pordenone 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.75 xG and Pordenone 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 1.218 / defence 1.333 | Pordenone attack 0.630 / defence 1.441. League average goals — home 0.998 / away 1.150. Pordenone bring a strong defensive rating of 1.441 — this is suppressing Brescia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Brescia games / 11 Pordenone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brescia 55% | Draw 25% | Pordenone 20%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Pordenone 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Brescia (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brescia are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Brescia 80% | Pordenone 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Pordenone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 55% | Draw 25% | Pordenone 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG Brescia 1.75 / Pordenone 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 1.218 / def 1.333 | Pordenone attack 0.630 / def 1.441 | league avg home 0.998 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Brescia (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Pordenone xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Pordenone kick off?
Brescia vs Pordenone kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Pordenone?
Brescia 1 - 0 Pordenone.
Where is Brescia vs Pordenone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Pordenone part of?
Brescia vs Pordenone is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Pordenone?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 55% chance of winning, Pordenone a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Pordenone?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Brescia and Pordenone will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Pordenone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Pordenone?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Brescia and Pordenone in?
Brescia (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Pordenone (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Brescia's attack at 1.22x the league average against Pordenone's defence at 1.44x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pordenone's attack (0.63x) against Brescia's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
55%
1.82
25%
3.96
20%
5.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Brescia xG
Total xG
2.72
0.97
Pordenone xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
5.06
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
17%
5.77
Win to Nil
21%
4.79
3%
29.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.2 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Pordenone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Brescia and Pordenone expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Brescia and 0.97 for Pordenone, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Pordenone?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Brescia come into this having played 11 games, going 6W 3D 2L for 1.91 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-W. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pordenone sit at 0.27 PPG from 11 outings (0W 3D 8L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Pordenone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brescia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.64 PPG clear of Pordenone — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Brescia's home form reads 2W 2D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Pordenone have taken 0.20 points per game from 5 outings (0W 1D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brescia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Brescia are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Pordenone are on 0.73 scored and 2.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brescia have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 11 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Blended
Pordenone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Pordenone in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 6W 3D 2L in their last 11 games (1.91 PPG), while Pordenone have gone 0W 3D 8L in their last 11 (0.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Pordenone away?
Brescia's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.60 PPG; Pordenone away: 0.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Brescia
1
Draws
0
Pordenone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Pordenone?
From 2 meetings on record, Brescia have won 1, Pordenone have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Pordenone last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2022, when Pordenone 1-1 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Brescia and Pordenone?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Pordenone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 80%, Pordenone 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Brescia) and 40% (Pordenone).
On the defensive side: Pordenone in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Pordenone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Pordenone?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Brescia's games and 40% of Pordenone's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brescia vs Pordenone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Brescia's recent games and 40% of Pordenone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Pordenone tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Pordenone in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Brescia edge out Pordenone 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia beat Pordenone 1-0 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.75 xG and Pordenone 0.97 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Pordenone landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 1.22 / defence 1.33 against Pordenone attack 0.63 / defence 1.44, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 55% | Draw 25% | Pordenone 20%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 54%, Pordenone 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Pordenone's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Brescia arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 0.27. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Brescia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Pordenone (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.